Historical summer base flow and stormflow trends for New England rivers

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

doi:10.1029/2010wr009109

Cited by 74 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast is consistent with regional-scale studies (e.g., Hodgkins and Dudley, 2011) and is consistent with the increases in 7-day low flows and fall precipitation shown in Small et al (2006) that focused on a smaller set of sites across the eastern US from the HCDN. Several other studies (e.g., Douglas et al, 2000;McCabe and Wolock, 2002;Hayhoe et al, 2007;Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006) have identified an overall increasing trend in precipitation over the past 50 years, and a decreasing pattern in soil moisture drought over the much of the US including the northeast (Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006).…”

Section: Potential Drivers Of Trends In Low Flowssupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Increases in evaporation (Walter et al, 2004;Huntington and Billmire, 2014) may have also led to declines in groundwater recharge and streamflow (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2011), and potentially cancelled out the overall increases in precipitation across much of the US (Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006). Figure 10 also shows an estimate of the trend in late summer/early fall potential evaporation based on the NLDAS2 data set of Xia et al (2012).…”

Section: Potential Drivers Of Trends In Low Flowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Sadri

Kam

Sheffield

2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decisionmaking regarding allowable withdrawals. The goal of this paper is to examine nonstationarity in low flow generation across the eastern US and explore the potential anthropogenic influences or climate drivers. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1-day, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site showed that many of the sites with step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend have been documented as having some kind of regulation. Sites with decreasing or no trend are less likely to have documented influences on flows. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period , even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to fall, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

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Section: Potential Drivers Of Trends In Low Flowssupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Potential Drivers Of Trends In Low Flowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Sadri

Kam

Sheffield

2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Increases in summer streamflows may be attributable to increases in summer precipitation for this region, as reported by Hodgkins and Dudley (2011). In addition, increases in summer streamflows may be attributable to increased urbanization in some of these basins, which includes increases in wastewater discharge, impervious cover, and streamflow regulation.…”

Section: Changes In Streamflow Water Years 1974-2013 and 2001-13mentioning

confidence: 80%

“…The slightly increasing flow-normalized concentrations and loads of DSi may be affected by declining TP concentrations in some of the basins upstream from the monitoring sites, limiting productivity of diatoms. Observed increases in summer base flows (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2011) may be related to increasing DSi loads from groundwater.…”

Section: Silicamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nutrient, organic carbon, and chloride concentrations and loads in selected Long Island Sound tributaries—Four decades of change following the passage of the Federal Clean Water Act

Mullaney¹

2016

Scientific Investigations Report

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“…These changes have not been distributed uniformly in time or space, and snowfall and base flow have marginally decreased or increased in some places in response to local conditions. Similarly, for the 57-year study from 1950 to 2006, Hodgkins and Dudley (2011) found increased base flow and stormflow in New England, and Dudley and Hodgkins (2013) found increased groundwater levels. Hamilton and others (2010) reported on climate trends in New Hampshire; air temperature and precipitation increased throughout the 20th century, accelerating since 1970.…”

Section: Previous Investigationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

Bjerklie¹,

Sturtevant²

2018

Scientific Investigations Report

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For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit https://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS.For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit https://store.usgs.gov.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner.Suggested citation: Bjerklie, D.M., and Sturtevant, Luke, 2018, Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5143, 53 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ sir20175143. ISSN 2328-0328 (online) iii AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank the project cooperators represented by Steven Couture of the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and Matthew Cahillane of the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services. In addition, valuable input and consultation were provided by Cameron Wake of the Sustainability Institute, University of New Hampshire; Fay Rubin of the Earth Systems Research Center at the University of New Hampshire; and the entire stakeholder group assembled for this project. The stakeholder group is acknowledged for supporting the project, for providing helpful guidance and suggestions regarding data and information needs, and for feedback. This publication was supported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) grant number #NUE1EH001332-01 from the National Center for Environmental Health in Atlanta, Georgia. The contents of the report do not necessarily represent the official views of the CDC. The authors would also like to thank Jacob LaFontaine, Robert Dudley, Sara Levin, Gregory Stewart, Gardner Bent, and Thomas Mack of the U.S. Geological Survey for valuable review comments and suggestions during the course of this study. Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows:°C=(°F-32)/1.8. DatumVertical coordinate information is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83).Elevation, as used in this report, refers to distance above the vertical datum. Abbreviations AbstractThe U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short-and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to ident...

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Historical summer base flow and stormflow trends for New England rivers

Cited by 74 publications

References 49 publications

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Nutrient, organic carbon, and chloride concentrations and loads in selected Long Island Sound tributaries—Four decades of change following the passage of the Federal Clean Water Act

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

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