Historical trade integration: globalization and the distance puzzle in the long twentieth century

Standaert, Samuel; Ronsse, Stijn; Vandermarliere, Benjamin

doi:10.1007/s11698-015-0130-5

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The selection of macroeconomic variables, which are all expressed as log-deviations from the trend, is based on the work of Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2018) and are collected from the IMF-IFS database, while the oil price is from the FRED database. The HTI index is based on the work of Standaert et al (2016). 3 The index is based on a state-space model that combines four alternative indicators of the level of trade integration into one overall index.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this way, we have six different subindexes; HTI CAN → MEX , HTI MEX → CAN , HTI US → CAN , HTI CAN → US , HTI US → MEX and HTI MEX → US . Each of these indexes proxies the level of trade integration between the two countries (Standaert et al 2016). For instance, HTI CAN → MEX refers to bilateral trade integration between Canada and Mexico from the Canadian perspective, i.e., an increase in the HTI CAN → MEX indicates that Canadian-Mexican trade is becoming more important from the Canadian point of view.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trade (Dis)integration: The Sudden Death of NAFTA

2019

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This paper uses a structural PVAR model to study the macroeconomic effects of trade disintegration among NAFTA members. The results reveal substantial asymmetric responses, showing that the US is the most affected economy from a sudden negative trade integration shock. Moreover, Canada and the US are found to be relatively more interconnected with each other compared to the Mexican economy. Our findings question the US decision to push for the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade (Dis)integration: The Sudden Death of NAFTA

2019

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“…The earliest examples explored the use of state-space models in studying Malthusian mechanisms (see e.g. Lee et al, 2002;Crafts and Mills, 2009;or Pfister et al, 2012), while recently Veenstra (2015) and Standaert et al (2016) used it to combine data on German manufacturing and worldwide bilateral trade flows, respectively.…”

Section: Figure 2 -Population Of Wavre Based On An Amalgamation Of Tementioning

confidence: 99%

Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970

Ronsse

Standaert

2017

Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdiscipli

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Economists that study long-term changes during the 19 th and 20 th century are fundamentally restricted by the availability of qualitative data, as the latter is often inversely proportional to quality. This is further compounded by administrative changes that alter what exactly is being measured over time as well as an overall decrease of data availability the further we go back in time. This is particularly inconvenient in historical population data, as census data is often only available ever decade. As a result, researchers are forced to either impute qualitative data, or otherwise combine datasets of varying quality in some way. In this article, we demonstrate the versatility of state-space models in addressing these problems, enabling us to compose large data series of a high quality. Moreover, unlike more simple techniques it also provides an estimate of the reliability of the results, allowing any subsequent analyses to take this into account. We illustrate this by combining growth and level data on the population of Belgian cities into a dataset that contains yearly estimates of the population of over 2600 cities from 1880 to 1970.

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“…The study of international trade before the 1950s is hampered by the limitations imposed by the scarcity of data. Thanks to a technique developed in [24], a reliable coverage of the data on international trade between 1880 and 2011 could be accomplished. Note that during the world wars data collection on trade was almost halted.…”

Section: Analysis With Empirical Temporal Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and localization of change points in temporal networks with the aid of stochastic block models

2016

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Abstract.A framework based on generalized hierarchical random graphs (GHRGs) for the detection of change points in the structure of temporal networks has recently been developed by Peel and Clauset (2015 Proc. 29th AAAI Conf. on Artificial Intelligence). We build on this methodology and extend it to also include the versatile stochastic block models (SBMs) as a parametric family for reconstructing the empirical networks. We use five dierent techniques for change point detection on prototypical temporal networks, including empirical and synthetic ones. We find that none of the considered methods can consistently outperform the others when it comes to detecting and locating the expected change points in empirical temporal networks. With respect to the precision and the recall of the results of the change points, we find that the method based on a degree-corrected SBM has better recall properties than other dedicated methods, especially for sparse networks and smaller sliding time window widths.

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Historical trade integration: globalization and the distance puzzle in the long twentieth century

Cited by 7 publications

References 36 publications

Trade (Dis)integration: The Sudden Death of NAFTA

Trade (Dis)integration: The Sudden Death of NAFTA

Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970

Detection and localization of change points in temporal networks with the aid of stochastic block models

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