Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Abstract

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of longterm records (1892-2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre-whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post-1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region.Values marked with ' * ' are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. DTR, daily temperature range. 2242 M. M. IRIZARRY-ORTIZ ET AL.

The spatio‐temporal variability of annual precipitation and its local impact factors during 1724–2010 in Beijing, China

“…Considering the similarities of other conditions and the small geographical scale of the distribution of these two teams of stations, we conclude that it is urbanization that causes the reversion. That is, urbanization has obvious impacts on the spatial distribution of the local precipitation, which is consistent with similar studies worldwide (Michelle et al, 2012).…”

Assessment of uncertainty in multi‐model means of downscaled South Florida precipitation for projected (2019–2099) climate

“…The end dates are October 17, October 17, and October 19, respectively. These results agree with observations; the observed wet season has experienced later start dates, leading to a general decrease (increase) in wet (dry) season precipitation (Irizarry‐Ortiz et al ., ). We do not expect that this shift in the start of the wet season is enough to alter the timing of wet and dry seasons significantly for the near‐term.…”

“…NDJ and JJA are defined as the wet and dry seasons, respectively, following Irizarry‐Ortiz et al . (). These seasons may not be appropriate for all climate data users in South Florida but can still provide guidance.…”

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

“…In south Florida, the developed areas in the east coast have received more precipitation than both interior areas and the west coast. Whereas, the northern portion of the state has experienced a second peak in precipitation during winter months associated with frontal low-pressure systems (Irizarry-Ortiz et al 2013). In this research, trend analysis was conducted for the whole state of Florida.…”

“…The TSA is also designated as Sen slope estimator. Sen's slope estimator has been extensively used as a robust predictor of trend slope in several previous studies (Hirsch et al 1982;Zhang et al 2000;Burn and Hag Elnur 2002;Burn et al 2004;Partal and Kahya 2006;Novotny and Stefan 2007;Tabari et al 2011;Irizarry-Ortiz et al 2013;Gocic and Trajkovic 2013;). …”