Context
Worldwide studies show that the type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence is increasing by 3% annually.
Objectives
We investigated the recent incidence of T1D in a US Midwestern county to determine whether this increase has been sustained and compare to celiac disease (CD) incidence. The prevalence of (CD), an associated autoimmune disease, within the cohort was also investigated.
Design
A broad search strategy was used to identify all cases of T1D in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1,1994 and December 31, 2010 using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Diagnosis and residency status were confirmed through the medical record. Incidence rates were directly standardized to the 2010 United States population. Poisson regression was used to test for a change in incidence rate. Clinical charts were reviewed to confirm case status.
Setting
Population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.
Main Outcome Measure
The trend in T1D incidence in a population-based study in a Midwestern US county.
Results
There were 233 incident cases of T1D. Directly adjusting for age and sex with respect to the 2010 US white population, the overall annual incidence of T1D was 9.2 (95% CI, 8.0-10.4) per 100,000 people per year among all ages and 19.9 (95% CI, 16.6-23.2) per 100,000 per people per year for those younger than 20 years. There was no significant increase in the incidence of T1D over time (P=.45). Despite the overall stability in annual incidence, there was an initial increasing trend followed by a plateau. Of the 109 T1D patients (46%) tested for CD, 12% had biopsy-proven CD.
Conclusions
The incidence of T1D has stopped increasing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in the most recent decade. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding and explore reasons for this plateau.