Homicide drop in seven European countries: General or specific across countries and crime types?

Abstract

This study examines homicide trends in seven European countries – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, the Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden and Switzerland – all of which manifested a substantial drop in homicide mortality between 1990 and 2016. By using data from the European Homicide Monitor, a coding scheme created to enable cross-country comparisons, combined with the national cause-of-death statistics, we explore generality versus specificity of the homicide drop. We examine changes in the demographic structure of victims and offenders and disaggregate homicides by different subtypes of lethal incidents, such as family-related homicides referring to conflicts between family members, and criminal milieu homicides occurring in the context of robberies, gang-related conflicts or organised crime. Results point to the generality of the drop: in most of the countries studied, the declining trend included all homicide types. The overall decline in homicide mortality was driven mostly by the decline in male victimisation and offending. In most of the countries, the gender distribution of victims and offenders changed only slightly during the study period, whereas the development of the distribution of homicide types manifested greater diversity. Our findings illustrate the benefits of disaggregated analyses in comparative homicide research.

Old habits die hard: Assessing the validity of using homicide as an indicator of other violent crimes

“…The results of this study paint a relatively complex picture regarding the relationship between homicide and violent crime. First, when looking at the trends of the different violent crimes over time, most of the crime types declined (see also Aebi and Linde, 2010) – a trend similar to the crime drop observed in most of the Western world since the second half of the 1990s to these days (Blumstein, 2006; Suonpää et al, 2022; Weiss et al, 2016). However, in spite of this general similarity, the various individual violent crimes dropped at quite different rates; and in fact, rates of rape increased over the timeframe.…”

“…Further, the ‘landscape’ of crime and violence in the Netherlands is broadly similar to that in other Western European countries (see e.g. Suonpää et al, 2022). As such, findings in the Netherlands are informative in understanding patterns of crime and violence in (Western) Europe more generally.…”

Blunt force homicides in Denmark 1992–2016

“…Blunt force trauma is one of the four most common homicide methods in Denmark, and like sharp force trauma, gunshots and asphyxia, the homicide rate decreased in the studied 25‐year period as part of a general trend in homicides in the western world [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ]. The decreasing trend in homicide rates in seven northwestern European countries (including Denmark) during 1992–2016 affected all types of homicide, with the decline in female victimization being most prominent in domestic homicides, while the decline in male victimization was most prominent in non‐domestic homicides involving working‐aged men [ 22 ]. Possible explanations for the declining homicide rates are less violent crime in general, firearm restrictions, fewer weapons in public spaces, changes in lifestyle with more time spent at home, changes in alcohol culture and decreasing youth populations [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ].…”

“…The decreasing trend in homicide rates in seven northwestern European countries (including Denmark) during 1992–2016 affected all types of homicide, with the decline in female victimization being most prominent in domestic homicides, while the decline in male victimization was most prominent in non‐domestic homicides involving working‐aged men [ 22 ]. Possible explanations for the declining homicide rates are less violent crime in general, firearm restrictions, fewer weapons in public spaces, changes in lifestyle with more time spent at home, changes in alcohol culture and decreasing youth populations [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ]. Technological advances such as improved health care and telecommunication, has led to better and faster trauma treatment, improving survival rates in victims of violence [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ].…”

“…Possible explanations for the declining homicide rates are less violent crime in general, firearm restrictions, fewer weapons in public spaces, changes in lifestyle with more time spent at home, changes in alcohol culture and decreasing youth populations [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ]. Technological advances such as improved health care and telecommunication, has led to better and faster trauma treatment, improving survival rates in victims of violence [ 3 , 17 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ]. While the availability of knives and firearms in public can be controlled via legislation, this is not possible for all of blunt objects and certainly not for fists, knees, and feet, so the reduction in blunt force homicides must be part of a general trend in violence and perhaps also influenced by faster and better trauma treatment [ 16 , 23 ].…”