Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Abstract

Methods for forecasting households in London and the Thames Valley were developed for input to forecasts of domestic water consumption. Households were forecast by ethnicity, size and property type. South Asian‐headed households consumed more water (per capita) than average. Forecast populations for 60 Local Authorities were extracted from a UK‐wide forecast and aggregated to six Water Resource Zones (WRZs). Household populations by age, sex and ethnicity were multiplied by trended headship rates to forecast households. Households were classified by size and property type using census microdata. Water demand was generated using modelled consumption rates, based on policy interventions. Between 2011 and 2101, the region will experience 85% growth in populations and 113% in households. The household growth will vary across WRZs between 54% and 126%. Water demand in London and the Thames Valley is forecast to grow by 90%, 69% and 46% under status quo, moderate and extreme conservation scenarios. The future growth in water demand under all scenarios poses a huge challenge for the region, already under water stress.

An Open‐Source Model for Projecting Small Area Demographic and Land‐Use Change

“…Water consumption varies by the socio demographic attributes of households, as discussed by Willis et al (2013) in an Australian context, while Shandas and Parandvash (2010) make the link between socio‐economic variables and water demand in a case study of Oregon. Custom forecasts of households were developed by Rees, Clark, and Nawaz (2020) for the purpose of forecasting domestic water demand in London and the Thames Valley. They argue for the necessity of having good forecasts given that consumption is dependent on the number and type of individuals within households.…”

Role of Water Policies in the Adoption of Smart Water Metering and the Future Market

“…The UK government allows the optional installation of traditional water meters and SWM for several water companies (i.e., Affinity Water Anglian Water, Essex and Suffolk Water, South East Water, Southern Water, Sutton, East Surrey Water, and Thames Water) in water-stressed areas. Additionally, the water authorities (e.g., Defra and Ofwat) do not consider SWM as a critical and compulsory technology [38]. Scottish Water installed 3000 SWM in commercial properties to save water and to improve leak detection, promoting SWM implementation in this area [23].…”

“…Without specifying the detailed functions of SWM to produce granular data, Ofwat revealed a strategy requiring the use of customer data for improved customer service and communications in 2014 [54]. In 2018, DEFRA published an environmental plan stating both needs and measures to have a personal water consumption target in England and the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) recommended SWM implementations to improve water efficiency [38,65]. In 2019, the NIC, the Committee on Climate Change, and the House of Commons Environment Food and Rural Affairs (EFRA) Committee recommended the government to enforce compulsory water metering in the UK.…”

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

“…Nor do we cover derived small area forecasts or those for population sub-groups, such as school enrolment, ethnic group, or living arrangement and household-type forecasts (e.g. Feng et al, 2020 ; GLA, 2018 ; Grip & Grip, 2020 ; Rees et al, 2020 ). These topics would benefit from separate dedicated reviews.…”