Households and Living Arrangements of Older Persons Around the World

Kamiya, Yumiko; Hertog, Sara

doi:10.1093/geroni/igz038.2967

Cited by 19 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…[44] Young populations who go out to work, buy food and look after the family are hard to shield and likely to be highly exposed to the virus. The average size of households with older members is 12·1 in Senegal and 12·6 in the Gambia, the highest in the world,[45] and this may increase the potential for exposure to the virus and hinder isolation of symptomatic cases. High rates of tuberculosis, HIV, malaria, and other infectious diseases may also make young African populations more vulnerable to severe infection with COVID-19.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

Frost

Craig

Osena

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Objectives As of August 24th 2020, there have been 1,084,904 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 24,683 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policy making decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. Design We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown, and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analyzed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and TB. Results In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645,081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa projected peak severe infections increase from 162,977 to 203,261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policy makers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

Frost

Craig

Osena

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…32 Young populations who go out to work, buy food and look after the family are hard to shield and likely to be highly exposed to the virus. The average size of households with older members is 12.1 in Senegal and 12.6 in the Gambia, the highest in the world, 33 and this may increase the potential for exposure to the virus and hinder isolation of symptomatic cases. High rates of TB, HIV, malaria and other infectious diseases may also make young African populations more vulnerable to severe infection with COVID-19.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ObjectivesAs of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios.DesignWe developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB).ResultsIn the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

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“…Currently, more than one-quarter of older adults live in Asia, North America, and Europe [2]. From 2020 to 2050, Asia may witness the fastest growth in the population of older adults [3]. As the world's most populated country, China is estimated to possess around 380 million older adults by 2050 [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Associations of the Built Environment with Cycling Frequency among Older Adults in Zhongshan, China

Wang

Zhang

Zhao

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The health and welfare of older adults have raised increasing attention due to global aging. Cycling is a physical activity and mode of transportation to enhance the mobility and quality of life among older adults. Nevertheless, the planning strategies to promote cycling among older adults are underutilized. Therefore, this paper describes the nonlinear associations of the built environment with cycling frequency among older adults. The data were collected from the Zhongshan Household Travel Survey (ZHTS) in 2012. The modeling approach was the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. The findings demonstrated that nonlinear relationships exist among all the selected built environment attributes. Within specific intervals, the population density, the land-use mixture, the distance from home to the nearest bus stop, and the distance from home to CBD are positively correlated to the cycling among older adults. Additionally, an inverse “U”-shaped relationship appears in the percentage of green space land use among all land uses. Moreover, the intersection density is inversely related to the cycling frequency among older adults. These findings provide nuanced and appropriate guidance for establishing age-friendly neighborhoods.

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Households and Living Arrangements of Older Persons Around the World

Cited by 19 publications

References 0 publications

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios

Nonlinear Associations of the Built Environment with Cycling Frequency among Older Adults in Zhongshan, China

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