The transition from trying the first cigarette through occasional to daily smoking usually implies that a recreational activity is turning into a compulsive need that has to be satisfied virtually continuously. The "conversion rate" from initial experimentation to daily smoking is thus a potentially important metric of smoking behavior, but estimates of it based on representative data are lacking. The present meta-analysis addressed this gap. Currently, about two-thirds of nonsmokers experimenting with cigarettes progress to daily smoking. The finding supports strongly the current efforts to reduce cigarette experimentation among adolescents.