How Artificial Intelligence Can Improve Understanding in Challenging Chaotic Environments

Abstract

Decision-makers are concerned with the inherent complexity of the modern world’s markets. However, price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, emerging markets, political challenges, and social expectations made the 21st century more dynamic and complex. From a policy-making perspective, it is vital to uncover future trends. This article proposed that artificial intelligence (AI) can improve interpretations in complex markets, such as financial and energy markets. In a complex environment, it is critical to investigate maximum available input features to ensure no valuable informative feature is neglected. Some AI-based models are investigated and presented that AI-based models can successfully uncover future trends. From a scenario development perspective, purified input features subset refers to driving forces which shape alternative futures. Results showed that using AI can improve our understanding of how input features influence future behaviors and simultaneously improve prediction accuracy and reliability.

An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross-impact analysis method

“…In the 1970s, Shell's successful prediction of the events in world oil market, like the oil shock, drew the attention of experts and professionals to the importance of energy foresight studies (Jefferson 2012;Hafezi 2019). Several studies reviewed Shell's experience in scenario analysis and presented different narrative to what was found in the existing literature.…”

Extending the Participant’s Voice to Guide Artificial Intelligence Transformation Using Futures Methodology and Layered User Story Analysis

“…The participatory workshop process (see Figure 2) was framed in a futures context of 2040. The year 2040 was chosen for the scenario due to it featuring commonly in reported research about the impact of AI on the workforce (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2018;Hafezi 2020;Husain 2017;Gillham et al 2018) as well as futures research needing to include a degree of anticipation (traditionally beyond the limitation of a typical 3-5 years organisational strategy horizon) (Dias-Dominguez 2020; Poli 2019).…”

“…In this research, AI was defined broadly to allow for participant creativity in the user story generation process. AI in this workshop was defined as a collection of different programming technologies, languages and algorithms that can learn and adapt autonomously (Farrow 2019;Hafezi 2020). It is noted that in many cases, AI-based technologies use a top-down, rules-based logic that does not change based on empirical applications unless re-programmed.…”

Research on 3D Sampling and Monitoring of Power Supplies Based on Augmented Reality (AR) Technology

“…VINS-SLAM uses a loosely coupled sensor fusion method to obtain the initial value. At initialization, the results of the IMU pre-integration and the visual SfM in the sliding window are obtained, and by aligning the IMU pre-integration with the visual SfM results, the scale, gravity, velocity and even deviation can be roughly restored [7] .…”

“…T P z p T P (7) The two sides of the equation are multiplied by the outer product (P1)x, (P2)x, of P1,P2, that is：…”