How climate change might affect tea

Nowogrodzki, Anna

doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00399-0

Cited by 33 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 4 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…By 2050 and 2070, optimal and medium suitability areas in China show large variations under different GCMs. The reason for this result may be due to the harsh weather conditions in China over past years [10,62]. The results of this study are consistent with previous studies showing that the habitat suitability of the tea plant species is predicted to improve in some regions under climate change conditions [63,64].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Tea has been introduced in many other parts of the world from the major hubs of cultivation in South-East Asia and is now grown in conditions ranging from Mediterranean-type climates to hot, humid tropics [10]. British planter James Taylor started a tea plantation in Kandy, Sri Lanka, in 1867 [11] and currently the country produces three main types: Ceylon black, Ceylon green, and Ceylon white tea [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

Jayasinghe

Kumar

2020

Agronomy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

Jayasinghe

Kumar

2020

Agronomy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition to the influence of climate change on the annual productivity of tea plantations, potential changes in quality are also of central importance. Some chemical compounds of tea related to its health benefits are reduced under higher temperatures or shifting monsoon seasons (Kowalsick et al 2014, Nowogrodzki 2019. These effects cannot be represented with the current modeling approach in LPJmL.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World’s major producer countries

Beringer

Kulak

Müller

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Modeling of climate change impacts have mainly been focused on a small number of annual staple crops that provide most of the world's calories. Crop models typically do not represent perennial crops despite their high economic, nutritional, or cultural value. Here we assess climate change impacts on global tea production, chosen because of its high importance in culture and livelihoods of people around the world. We extended the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, global crop model to simulate the cultivation of tea plants. Simulated tea yields were validated and found in good agreement with historical observations as well as experiments on the effects of increasing CO 2 concentrations. We then projected yields into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Under current irrigation levels and lowest climate change scenarios, tea yields are expected to decrease in major producing countries. In most climate scenarios, we project that tea yields are set to increase in China, India, and Vietnam. However, yield losses are expected to affect Kenya, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. If abundant water supply and full irrigation is assumed for all tea cultivation areas, yields are projected to increase in all regions.

show abstract

“…Several studies have been conducted to gain insight into the responses of perennial crops such as almonds, avocados, grapes, and walnuts to climate projections ( Lobell et al., 2006 ). Diseases in perennial crops have been well researched, but the impact of climate change on the distribution of these fungal diseases on tea has not yet been studied ( Karakaya and Dikilitas, 2018 ; Nowogrodzki, 2019 ). Tea comprises almost one-quarter of the global perennial crop market, including coffee, tree fruits, and tree nuts ( Supplementary Table S1 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Fungal Pathogen Modeling Predicts Loss of Up to One-Third of Tea Growing Areas

Tibpromma

Dong

Ranjitkar

et al. 2021

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change will affect numerous crops in the future; however, perennial crops, such as tea, are particularly vulnerable. Climate change will also strongly influence fungal pathogens. Here, we predict how future climatic conditions will impact tea and its associated pathogens. We collected data on the three most important fungal pathogens of tea (Colletotrichum acutatum, Co. camelliae, and Exobasidium vexans) and then modeled distributions of tea and these fungal pathogens using current and projected climates. The models show that baseline tea-growing areas will become unsuitable for Camellia sinensis var. sinensis (15 to 32% loss) and C. sinensis var. assamica (32 to 34% loss) by 2050. Although new areas will become more suitable for tea cultivation, existing and potentially new fungal pathogens will present challenges in these areas, and they are already under other land-use regimes. In addition, future climatic scenarios suitable range of fungal species and tea suitable cultivation (respectively in CSS and CSA) growing areas are Co. acutatum (44.30%; 31.05%), Co. camelliae (13.10%; 10.70%), and E. vexans (10.20%; 11.90%). Protecting global tea cultivation requires innovative approaches that consider fungal genomics as part and parcel of plant pathology.

show abstract

How climate change might affect tea

Cited by 33 publications

References 4 publications

Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World’s major producer countries

Climate-Fungal Pathogen Modeling Predicts Loss of Up to One-Third of Tea Growing Areas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About