How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

Dessai, Suraje; Hulme, Michael

doi:10.1002/asl.197

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…There are several limitations to this approach, however, including the fact that for large parts of Ethiopia and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa discernable emergent changes are absent. In some cases recent trends may be different from the IPCC multi-model projections (Funk et al, 2008), lie within natural decadal variability (Dessai and Hulme, 2008) or only be detectable at very large scales (Zhang et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Conway¹,

Schipper²

2011

Global Environmental Change

556

304

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Conway¹,

Schipper²

2011

Global Environmental Change

556

304

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“…The usability of climatic projections has been questioned by numerous articles, remaining a key issue in model applications. Dessai and Hulme (2008) argue that prior to UKCP09, UK climate projection models fell broadly within the range of observed climate with the biggest ambiguity occurring for summer rainfall. Ekström et al (2007) argue that the determination of PET is an imperfect science, resulting from a limited knowledge regarding atmosphere-soil feedbacks.…”

Section: Weather Generator Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard

2015

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Clay-related subsidence is Great Britain's (GB) most damaging soil-related geohazard, costing the economy up to £500 million per annum. Soil-related geohazard models based on mineralogy and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) derived from historic weather data have been used in risk management since the 1990s. United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09) suggest that regions of GB will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters through to 2050. As a result, PSMD fluctuations are expected to increase, exacerbating the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils. A forward-looking approach is now required to mitigate the impacts of future climate on GB's built environment. We present a framework for incorporating probabilistic projections of PSMD, derived from a version of the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator, into a clay subsidence model. This provides a novel, national-scale thematic model of the likelihood of clay-related subsidence, related to the top 1-1.5 m soil layer, for three time periods; baseline (1961-1990), 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069). Results indicate that much of GB, with the exception of upland areas, will witness significantly higher PSMDs through to the 2050s. As a result, some areas with swelling clay soils will be subject to proportionately increased subsidence hazard. South-east England will likely incur the highest hazard exposure to clay-related subsidence through to 2050. Potential impacts include increased incidence of property foundation subsidence, alongside deterioration and increased failure rates of GB's infrastructure networks. Future clay-subsidence hazard scenarios are beneficial to many sectors, including: finance, central and local government, residential property markets, utilities and infrastructure operators.

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“…The performance of plans optimized for a most likely future can deteriorate very quickly due to small deviations from the most likely future, let alone in the face of surprise. Even analyzing a well-crafted handful of scenarios will miss most of the future's richness and provides no systematic means to examine their implications [9][10][11]. This is particularly true for methods based on detailed models.…”

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confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

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Abstract:There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The papers appear in disparate journals, and deal with a wide variety of policy domains. This paper (1) describes and compares a family of related conceptual approaches to designing a sustainable plan, and (2) describes several computational tools supporting these approaches. The conceptual approaches all have their roots in an approach to longterm planning called Assumption-Based Planning. Guiding principles for the design of a sustainable adaptive plan are: explore a wide variety of relevant uncertainties, connect short-term targets to long-term goals over time, commit to short-term actions while keeping options open, and continuously monitor the world and take actions if necessary. A key computational tool across the conceptual approaches is a fast, simple (policy analysis) model that is used to make large numbers of runs, in order to explore the full range of uncertainties and to identify situations in which the plan would fail. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 956

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How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

Cited by 13 publications

References 25 publications

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

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