How does selection of climate variables affect predictions of species distributions? A case study of three new weeds in <scp>N</scp>ew <scp>Z</scp>ealand

Sheppard, Christine S.

doi:10.1111/wre.12021

Cited by 36 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Th ese variables were selected to encompass those likely to be most biologically important to C. americanum given its growing season and susceptibility to drought ( Galloway, 2002 ;Prendeville et al, 2015 ), followed by removal of variables with a correlation coefficient >0.8 ( Sheppard, 2013 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Th e fastq fi les were run through 'process_ radtags' in Stacks 2013 ) to demultiplex the data and fi lter out low quality reads. Th e processed fastq fi les were individually mapped using Bowtie 2 ( Langmead and Salzberg, 2012 ) to a partial reference genome for C. americanum obtained from earlier sequencing of a wholegenome shotgun library (K. Barnard-Kubow, University of Virginia, unpublished data).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiple glacial refugia lead to genetic structuring and the potential for reproductive isolation in a herbaceous plant

Barnard‐Kubow

Debban

Galloway

2015

American J of Botany

101

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The isolation of populations of C. americanum in multiple refugia has led to a degree of phylogeographic structure greater than that found in most previously studied plants in eastern North America, which may be attributable to its short generation time. Reproductively isolated populations of C. americanum belong to divergent lineages, which suggests that survival in multiple glacial refugia contributed to the development of reproductive isolation in this species.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple glacial refugia lead to genetic structuring and the potential for reproductive isolation in a herbaceous plant

Barnard‐Kubow

Debban

Galloway

2015

American J of Botany

101

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“…Because of the environmental layers were of 2.5 arc-min spatial resolution for the “present-day” and LGM periods, the available 30 arc-sec spatial resolution layers of LIG were resampled using ARC GIS 10.0 to obtain same level of resolution. In addition, to reduce the effects of overfitting, ecological niche models (ENMs) based on current climatic data were trained using the methods of Sheppard (2013). Subsequently, only seven variables (BIO4, BIO7, BIO9, BIO11, BIO15, BIO18, BIO19) were used to develop the current distributions for the three oak species (Table S8), while the remaining 12 were discarded because of high autocorrelation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic Structure and Evolutionary History of Three Alpine Sclerophyllous Oaks in East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains and Adjacent Regions

et al. 2016

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The East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (EH-HM) region has a high biodiversity and harbors numerous endemic alpine plants. This is probably the result of combined orographic and climate oscillations occurring since late Tertiary. Here, we determined the genetic structure and evolutionary history of alpine oak species (including Quercus spinosa, Quercus aquifolioides, and Quercus rehderiana) using both cytoplasmic-nuclear markers and ecological niche models (ENMs), and elucidated the impacts of climate oscillations and environmental heterogeneity on their population demography. Our results indicate there were mixed genetic structure and asymmetric contemporary gene flow within them. The ENMs revealed a similar demographic history for the three species expanded their ranges from the last interglacial (LIG) to the last glacial maximum (LGM), which was consistent with effective population sizes changes. Effects of genetic drift and fragmentation of habitats were responsible for the high differentiation and the lack of phylogeographic structure. Our results support that geological and climatic factors since Miocene triggered the differentiation, evolutionary origin and range shifts of the three oak species in the studied area and also emphasize that a multidisciplinary approach combining molecular markers, ENMs and population genetics can yield deep insights into diversification and evolutionary dynamics of species.

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“…Selection of predictor variables has been recognized as an essential step in the modelling process [44–46]. Biological significance of the environmental data, resolution, extent of the study range as well as multicollinearity have been cited as factors influencing model results [29, 45, 47, 48].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil

Marchioro

2016

PLoS ONE

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The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

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How does selection of climate variables affect predictions of species distributions? A case study of three new weeds in New Zealand

Cited by 36 publications

References 34 publications

Multiple glacial refugia lead to genetic structuring and the potential for reproductive isolation in a herbaceous plant

Multiple glacial refugia lead to genetic structuring and the potential for reproductive isolation in a herbaceous plant

Genetic Structure and Evolutionary History of Three Alpine Sclerophyllous Oaks in East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains and Adjacent Regions

Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil

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