How foreign policy recommendations are put together: A computational model with empirical applications

Abstract

This paper presents and applies empirically a computational model of the way in which bona fide high level foreign policy recommendations by U.S. policy makers are assembled. We begin by pointing out that policy making can be seen as the connection of certain strings of words to other strings. We then discuss how these connections constitute certain types of foreign policy making phenomena as such. To theorize about such connections, one first needs to specify essential features of these phenomena, and we do so for one phenomenon: bona fide recommendations. We next turn to a discussion of the theory that links together the categories by which these features are represented. That theory explains how certain strings of words are assembled into new proximate goals, missions, and tools. The theory can be modeled computationally using the programming language Scheme, and we next present that model. We conclude by presenting a run of the model, showing the close fit between actual and generated strings.

6. Exponential Family Models for Sampled and Census Network Data

“…While we are still some years from having a viable statistical framework that can replace the linear regression model, it is now just a matter of time. The links with the growing literature in evolutionary game theory and the general study of agent-based interacting dynamic systems (Bowles Choi, and Hopfensitz 2003;Gintis 2000;Macy and Willer 2002;Majeski and Sylvan 1999;Padgett and Ansell 1993;Parker et al 2003;Watts 2003) suggest a general convergence in the social sciences on the empirical study of social relations and interaction.…”

Does grand theory shape officials’ speech?

“…The most fundamental reason for focusing on justifications is that persuasive speech is essentially the core activity of officials. Indeed, Majeski and Sylvan (1999: 303–304) define foreign policy making as a matter of connecting strings of words to other strings of words:Without denying for a moment that foreign policies involve physical acts–the dropping of bombs, the building of dams, the sending of soldiers–the meaning of these acts for the officials who ordered them, i.e., what the acts are and how certain acts are differentiated from other acts, is given precisely by the strings of words by which the acts are described. Hence, foreign policies are contoured by words; in this sense, foreign policies are speech acts.…”

“…This frame is motivated by the research of Majeski and Sylvan (1999; Sylvan and Majeski, 2009, 2011), who assert that US foreign policy making is less motivated by grand theoretic notions and leaders’ long-term strategic vision than by the short-term pursuit of concrete security goals by career government officials. We view newspaper coverage of events that constitute the context to which foreign policy practitioners must attend will reflect primarily factual descriptions of important events.…”

The State of Experimental Research in IR: An Analytical Survey

“…Studies of the former type include basic manipulation of situational variables to gauge fluctuations in the relative positions of conflict actors (Druckman 1971) as well as 2 · 2 manipulations of context by group assignment or traits to assess the impact of context on 15 Though not employing poliheuristic theory, a similar concern is exhibited in studies of group dynamics and the impact of internal conflict within groups on the decisions they produce. One interesting recent investigation of this relationship, subjecting students to a simulation built around a repeated prisoner's dilemma, has been advanced by Majeski (2008), as an extension of an earlier collaborative inquiry (Majeski and Sylvan 1999). 16 James N. Druckman and his colleagues have also conducted extensive experimental studies on how various contextual forces frame a particular issue, therefore influencing the formation of public opinion in a certain way.…”

“…15 15 Though not employing poliheuristic theory, a similar concern is exhibited in studies of group dynamics and the impact of internal conflict within groups on the decisions they produce. One interesting recent investigation of this relationship, subjecting students to a simulation built around a repeated prisoner’s dilemma, has been advanced by Majeski (2008), as an extension of an earlier collaborative inquiry (Majeski and Sylvan 1999). …”