How Is the Impact on Public Health of Second Wave of Covid-19 Pandemic Compared to the First Wave? Case Study of Italy

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to compare the effects on public health of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to first wave in society. The paper here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first European countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Methodology considers daily data from February to November 2020 of the ratio of confirmed cases/total swabs, fatality rate (deaths / confirmed cases) and ratio of individuals in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) / Confirmed cases. Results reveal that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a strong but declining impact on public health with the approaching of summer season and with the effects of containment measures, whereas second wave of the COVID-19 has a growing trend of confirmed cases with admission to ICUs and total deaths having a, to date, lower impact on public health compared to first wave. Although effects of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, policymakers have had an unrealistic optimist behavior that a new wave of COVID-19 could not hit their countries and, especially, a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses to cope with recurring COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This study can support vital information to design effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and similar epidemics in society.

Spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases, epidemic spread rate, spatial pattern, and its correlation with meteorological factors during the first to the second waves

“…This result was in line with the previous studies. In Italy, several cities with high wind speed tended to have a lower number of COVID-19 cases [ 3 ]. High wind speed could improve the diffusion of COVID-19 and decrease the risk of the COVID-19 spread around the cities.…”

“…The second wave of COVID-19 has been reported in some countries around the world. For instance, several authors have studied the second wave of COVID-19 in China [ 2 ], Italy [ 3 ], Iran [ 4 ], South Korea [ 5 ], and Vietnam [ 6 ]. Many possible factors can be listed that associate with increasing of magnitude COVID-19 cases in each country during the second wave, but a definite factor is still unknown.…”

Global analysis of timely COVID-19 vaccinations: improving governance to reinforce response policies for pandemic crises

“…The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/2059-4631.htm first wave of the COVID-19, countries applied non-pharmaceutical measures of containment and technological exaptation of existing drugs to face pandemic crisis (Ardito et al, 2021;Coccia, 2020aCoccia, , 2021d. Instead, from 2021 onwards, countries implemented vaccination campaigns to cope with the negative effects of subsequent waves of COVID-19 (Coccia, 2022a, b;Freed, 2021;World Health Organization, 2021).…”

The relation between COVID-19 vaccinations and public governance to improve preparedness of next pandemic impacts and crisis management: a global study

“…Coronavirus disease 2019 is an infectious disease caused by the novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which appeared in late 2019 (Coccia, 2020(Coccia, , 2020a(Coccia, , 2020b(Coccia, , 2020c. COVID-19 is still circulating in 2021 with new variants (e.g., Delta) of the novel influenza coronavirus that continue to be a constant pandemic threat in various countries worldwide (Johns Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering, 2021).…”