How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework

Levesque, Antoine; Pietzcker, Robert; Baumstark, Lavinia; Stercke, Simon De; Grübler, Arnulf; Luderer, Gunnar

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.139

Cited by 92 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…projections until 2100, that timeline is not appropriate in the energy sector, given the life span of the existing energy infrastructure [45][46][47] . The future period of 2031-2050 was chosen since energy infrastructure planning has the 2050 year as a comparable reference target in most energy projection and planning reports 48,49 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

2020

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Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10-15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

2020

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“…The use of high-carbon energy resources and social technologies [53] affects emissions, and the emissions play an important role in meeting the temperature goal.…”

Section: Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Shi

Cui

2019

Sustainability

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Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do not meet the demand for regional environmental assessment and social sustainable development. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed and discussed how SSPs were applied to regions, and this can be summarized into four main categories: (1) integrated assessment model (IAM) scenario analysis, (2) SSPs-RCPs-SPAs framework scenario analysis, (3) downscaling global impact assessment model, and (4) regional impact assessment model simulation. The study provides alternative ways to project land use, water resource, energy, and ecosystem service in regions, which can carry out related policies and actions to address climate change in advance and help achieve sustainable development.

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“…Based on their study they stated that the energy use for air conditioning in buildings will increase rapidly over the 21st century, mostly driven by income growth. Levesque et al show that, without further climate policies, global final energy demand of buildings could be tripled by 2100 [4]. Improving the thermal performances of the building envelope important energy saving can be obtained.…”

Section: Energy Use Of Buildingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Thermal Comfort Responses with Fuzzy Logic

Menyhárt

Kalmár

2019

Energies

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In order to reduce the energy consumption of buildings a series of new heating, ventilation and air conditioning strategies, methods, and equipment are developed. The architectural trends show that office and educational buildings have large glazed areas, so the thermal comfort is influenced both by internal and external factors and discomfort parameters may affect the overall thermal sensation of occupants. Different studies have shown that the predictive mean vote (PMV)—predictive percentage of dissatisfied (PPD) model poorly evaluates the thermal comfort in real buildings. At the University of Debrecen a new personalized ventilation system (ALTAIR) was developed. A series of measurements were carried out in order to test ALTAIR involving 40 subjects, out of which 20 female (10 young and 10 elderly) and 20 male (10 young and 10 elderly) persons. Based on the responses of subjects related to indoor environment quality, a new comfort index was determined using fuzzy logic. Taking into consideration the responses related to thermal comfort sensation and perception of odor intensity a new the fuzzy comfort index was 5.85 on a scale from 1–10.

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How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework

Cited by 92 publications

References 29 publications

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Investigation of Thermal Comfort Responses with Fuzzy Logic

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