How much transport can the climate stand?—Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050

Åkerman, Jonas; Höjer, Mattias

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.02.009

Cited by 156 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Backcasting has previously been used in Canada (Robinson, 1982), the United Kingdom Andersson et al, 2008;Anderson, 2001), the Netherlands (Quist and Vergragt, 2006;van den Bosch et al, 2005) and also in Sweden (Svenfelt et al, 2011;Åkerman and Höjer, 2006;Dreborg, 1996). As a future goal is already set by the EU 2020 primary energy target, backcasting may be considered more appropriate than conventional forecasting.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

Thollander

Rohdin

Moshfegh

et al. 2013

Journal of Cleaner Production

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The EU has established so-called 20-20-20 targets, which in relation to energy mean that each Member State shall improve energy intensity levels by 3.3% annually, leading to a reduced primary energy use of 20% by the year 2020, calculated from a projected level based on the primary energy use in 2005. Sweden has established a less ambitious target of 1.7% annual energy intensity improvement through 2020. The aim of this paper is to evaluate, ex-ante, the EU 2020 primary energy target for the Swedish industrial sector. An applied backcasting methodology is used. The assessment made in this paper is that actions that lead to between 31.6 to 33.2 TWh/year reductions in energy end-use are needed if the EU target is to be achieved.Results from this paper shows that the current energy policy instruments are not sufficient to the EU or Swedish targets. Estimations in this paper are that a primary energy target of about 22.3 TWh/year is reasonable. The paper concludes by presenting a roadmap on how the Swedish 2020 target can be achieved through: i) energy management; ii) energy-efficient technology; and iii) energy supply measures, with an approximate cost of 280-300 MEUR or 75-80 kWh per 2 public EUR. Three major additional policy measures are needed compared with the current policy: including all energy carriers, not just electricity, in the Swedish long-term agreements program PFE; setting up networks; and making it possible for third parties, i.e., industry, to deliver excess heat into the monopolized Swedish district heating grids.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

Thollander

Rohdin

Moshfegh

et al. 2013

Journal of Cleaner Production

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“…Some studies also acknowledge the need for behavioural change and reduced transport demand as important factors in addition to technological improvements (Åkerman and Höjer, 2006;Hickman and Banister, 2007;Robèrt and Jonsson, 2006). A common denominator of all these studies is that they focus on the ability of technology to create a desired, ideal future; economic conditions are sometimes considered, but societal factors rarely are.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This highly normative tool is usually used with the aim of radical change Robinson, 1990), and as such it has been used to examine how the transport system could evolve in several countries and cities, in order to reach sustainability goals. In a Swedish backcasting study, Åkerman and Höjer (2006) establish that for a transport system that complies with the 450 ppm CO2 target for 2050, substantial social change is required. Lindfeldt et al (2010) present strategies for renewable road transport in Sweden 2025, concluding that a mix of demand reduction and technical improvements could lead to a road transport system without fossil fuels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

et al. 2015

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This paper combines backcasting and policy analysis to identify the opportunities for and barriers to the increased use of renewable energy and energy-efficient vehicles in an urban road transport system, namely, that of Stockholm, Sweden, in 2030. The combination of methods could bridge the implementation gap between scenario-based research and actual policy implementation and thus increase the chances of research being implemented in practice. In the case study, backcasting identifies a need for diverse fuels and vehicles and for immediate policy action. However, analysis of policy integration demonstrates that such action is unlikely given current policy structures. The fundamental lack of integration between energy and transport policy obstructs measures to increase the use of renewable fuels and more energy-efficient vehicles, which in turn obstructs the reduction of CO2 emissions from transport. The combination of backcasting and policy analysis is demonstrated to improve our understanding of the prerequisites for transitioning to a system based on renewable energy, and could thus be useful in further research.

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“…It aims (1) to provide a short comparative account of the most commonly applied approaches in futures studies dealing with technology and sustainability (forecasting and backcasting), with the main focus on and the primary intent of highlighting the relevance of backcasting approach to sustainability planning as a set of complex problems; (2) to review the existing backcasting methodologies and discuss the relevance of their use in terms of their steps and guiding questions in analyzing strategic smart sustainable city development as an area that is at the intersection of city development, sustainable development, and technology development; (3) to synthesize a backcasting approach based on the outcome of the review and discussion; and (4) to examine backcasting as a scholarly methodology and planning approach by looking at its use in the Gothenburg 2050 Project, as well as to use this case to illustrate the core of the synthesized approach. The motivation for this paper is to provide guidelines and tools for the development of smart sustainable cities of the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Bibri

2018

Eur J Futures Res

102

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Backcasting as a scholarly and planning approach is increasingly used in futures studies in fields related to urban sustainability as an alternative to traditional planning approaches and a formal element of future strategic initiatives. It is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development within different societal spheres. As a holistic urban development strategy, smart sustainable cities represent a manifestation of sustainable development as a process of change and a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of sustainability. Achieving smart sustainable cities represents an instance of urban sustainability, a concept that refers to a desired state in which a city strives to retain the balance of socio-ecological system through sustainable development as a desired trajectory. This long-term goal requires fostering linkages between scientific and social research, technological innovations, institutional practices, and policy design and planning in relevance to urban sustainability. It also requires a long-term vision, a transdisciplinary approach, and a system-oriented perspective on addressing environmental, economic, and social issues. These requirements are at the core of backcasting as an approach to futures studies. Backcasting is a special kind of scenario methodology to develop future models for smart sustainable city as a planning tool for urban sustainability. Goal-oriented backcasting approaches declare long-range targets that lie quite far in the future. Visionary images of a long-term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the goals of urban sustainability. The backcasting approach is found to be well-suited for long-term urban sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. Also, it is particularly useful when dealing with complex problems and transitions, the current trends are part of the problem, and different directions of development can be allowed given the wide scope and long time horizon considered. A number of recent futures studies using backcasting have underlined the efficacy of this scholarly and planning approach in terms of indicating policy pathway for sustainability transitions and thus supporting policymakers and facilitating and guiding their actions. However, as there are a number of backcasting approaches used in different domains, and the backcasting framework is adaptive and contextual in nature, it is deemed highly relevant and useful to devise a scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. This paper has a fourfold purpose. It aims (1) to provide a comparative account of the most commonly applied approaches in futures studies dealing with technology and sustainability (forecasting and backcasting); (2) to review the existing backcasting methodologies and discuss the relevance of their use in terms of their steps and guiding questions in analyzing strategic smart sustainable city development as an area that is at the intersection o...

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How much transport can the climate stand?—Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050

Cited by 156 publications

References 16 publications

Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

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