How political trust matters in emergent democracies: evidence from East and Southeast Asia

Abstract

How does political trust affect the competing pressures of policy versus political performance in emergent democracies? Studies suggest that political trust buffers against these pressures, but empirical evidence is lacking in regard to if or how, given the focus in the literature on mature democracies where democratic institutions and practices are unlikely to be upended by either policy or political underperformance. However, in emergent democracies where the risks of democratic reversal loom large, the distinction is highly relevant. This article investigates how political trust matters in emergent democracies, specifically, if political trust buffers against public pressures, and whether it is system-directed versus incumbent-directed, for East and Southeast Asia. The evidence from multiple waves of survey data provides three useful insights: first, it shows that political trust supersedes economic expectations in support for the democratising system; this supports political trust as a buffer for the political system and is system-directed. Second, political trust goes hand-in-hand with economic performance to explain support for the incumbent government. This finding clarifies that political trust does not buffer the government against public pressure for performance. Third, taken together, the results show that economic growth may keep a government in office but institution-building leads to political trust that undergirds the political system, so that institution-building is a priority for stability in emergent democracies. These results expand the political trust literature to underpin democratic progression and consolidation issues that are unique to emergent democracies.

A New Normal or Business-as-Usual? Lessons for COVID-19 from Financial Crises in East and Southeast Asia

“…Control variables include the standard demographic controls of education, age, and gender (Yap 2019;Gomez and Wilson 2006). Other control variables include interest in politics and institutional confidence.…”

“…Witness, for instance, the Sunflower movement in Taiwan in 2014, the million-strong Candlelight protests in South Korea, 2016-2017, and the year-long protests in Hong Kong, 2019-2020. Meanwhile, the election of controversial and polarizing candidates-such as President Duterte in the Philippines, who campaigned on an anti-crime platform of shoot-to-kill, or Vice-President Ma'ruf Amin, the inactive chair of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) and Rais Aam (supreme leader) of the Islamic mass organization Nahdlatul Ulama in Indonesia, whose orthodox views include advocacy of the criminalization of gay sex-threaten to permanently cleave politics and society (Yap 2019).…”

Better service delivery, more satisfied citizens? The mediating effects of local government management capacity in South Korea

“…It is also noteworthy to highlight a recent study on the effects of political trust. Yap (2019) suggests that where political trust is prominent, public pressures for higher policy performance is reduced. In this sense, higher local government capacity and policy performance may not necessarily increase citizens' satisfaction not only because citizens perceive local governments as having low levels of accountability, but because they cast a strong doubt about political trust in local governments.…”

Decentralisation and government trust in South Korea: Distinguishing local government trust from national government trust

“…Many scholars have defined political trust as public trust in the political system (Hetherington, 1998; Levi & Stoker, 2000; Marien & Hooghe, 2011; Yap, 2019). Political trust also means that citizens are confident in ‘producing outcomes consistent with their expectations’ through political actors or institutions (Hetherington, 2005, p. 9); thus, it affects people's attitudes towards coming political issues.…”

“…Political trust also means that citizens are confident in ‘producing outcomes consistent with their expectations’ through political actors or institutions (Hetherington, 2005, p. 9); thus, it affects people's attitudes towards coming political issues. Since political trust is closely related to political support, those who support the existing political regime tend to trust in the government in power (Jamal & Nooruddin, 2010; Yap, 2019).…”