“…2 The relevant question is not whether campaigning is a sort of game theoretic "prisoner's dilemma" wherein both candidates could save time and money by refraining from active campaigning, but whether either candidate would find it advantageous unilaterally to abandon all campaign expenditures. As shown empirically by Stratmann (2009), television advertising has a non-negligible effect on voting behavior. Thus, the relationship between candidate expenditure and voter calculus is worthy of examination.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 92%
“…13 The Wisconsin Advertising Project catalogues the major attributes of every political advertisement aired during the 2003-2004 United States election cycle pertaining to gubernatorial and national elections. As shown by Stratmann (2009), television advertising has a marked impact on voter behavior and is therefore a reasonable proxy for variable campaign spending designed to increase political support.…”
Section: Empirical Testing: the 200democratic Party Primarymentioning
“…2 The relevant question is not whether campaigning is a sort of game theoretic "prisoner's dilemma" wherein both candidates could save time and money by refraining from active campaigning, but whether either candidate would find it advantageous unilaterally to abandon all campaign expenditures. As shown empirically by Stratmann (2009), television advertising has a non-negligible effect on voting behavior. Thus, the relationship between candidate expenditure and voter calculus is worthy of examination.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 92%
“…13 The Wisconsin Advertising Project catalogues the major attributes of every political advertisement aired during the 2003-2004 United States election cycle pertaining to gubernatorial and national elections. As shown by Stratmann (2009), television advertising has a marked impact on voter behavior and is therefore a reasonable proxy for variable campaign spending designed to increase political support.…”
Section: Empirical Testing: the 200democratic Party Primarymentioning
“…While campaign expenditures improve the accuracy of these traditional models, when scholars try to isolate specific campaign effects, total expenditures is a poor proxy (Goldstein and Ridout 2004;Huber and Arceneaux 2007;Stratmann 2004). There are two criticisms of using total campaign expenditures as a proxy for television advertisements.…”
Do political television advertisements influence congressional election results? We test a hypothesis that candidates increase their vote share by increasing their advertisement airings relative to their opponent's airings (i.e., ''mind the gap''). Using aggregate advertising data over three election cycles, we employ a two-stage least squares estimation with a rank-order instrumental variable, finding that the advertisement gap explains shifts in vote share after controlling for variables standard to congressional election modeling and advertisement volume. This methodological approach mitigates the endogenous relationship between advertisement airings and election results.
“…5 Jacobson (1978Jacobson ( , 1990 and Krasno (1988, 1990) debated this topic. Milyo (1998) and Basinger and Ensley (2007) weighed in more recently, finding more evidence of tepid incumbent spending effects in House elections, but Stratmann (2009) attributes this result to failing to control for differential costs of campaign advertising. we can depict these three quantities as an equilateral triangle, and we can depict any congressional election's results as a point that lies along or inside the borders of the triangle.…”
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