How social distancing, mobility, and preventive policies affect COVID-19 outcomes: Big data-driven evidence from the District of Columbia-Maryland-Virginia (DMV) megaregion

Abstract

Many factors play a role in outcomes of an emerging highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. Identification and better understanding of these factors are critical in planning and implementation of effective response strategies during such public health crises. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of factors related to social distancing, human mobility, enforcement strategies, hospital capacity, and testing capacity on COVID-19 outcomes within counties located in District of Columbia as well as the states of Maryland and Virginia. Longitudinal data have been used in the analysis to model county-level COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. These data include big location-based service data, which were collected from anonymized mobile devices and characterize various social distancing and human mobility measures within the study area during the pandemic. The results provide empirical evidence that lower rates of COVID-19 infection and mortality are linked with increased levels of social distancing and reduced levels of travel—particularly by public transit modes. Other preventive strategies and polices also prove to be influential in COVID-19 outcomes. Most notably, lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are linked with stricter enforcement policies and more severe penalties for violating stay-at-home orders. Further, policies that allow gradual relaxation of social distancing measures and travel restrictions as well as those requiring usage of a face mask are related to lower rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Additionally, increased access to ventilators and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, which represent hospital capacity, are linked with lower COVID-19 mortality rates. On the other hand, gaps in testing capacity are related to higher rates of COVID-19 infection. The results also provide empirical evidence for reports suggesting that certain minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

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“…The strictness of policy responses to face COVID-19 pandemic crisis can be measured with a combination of different indicators that are aggregated in the stringency index, which is processed by the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker project (Hale et al 2021 ; Stringency Index 2022 ). Mahmoudi and Xiong ( 2022 ) argue that lower COVID-19 infections and mortality rates are associated with stricter enforcement policies and more severe penalties for violating stay-at-home orders and other control measures. Qiu et al ( 2022 ) point out that bans of travel, closing schools and economic activities, and other restrictions were found to be the most effective responses to reduce COVID-19 transmission.…”

Prevalence and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in the Population of St. Petersburg, Russia

“…Quarantine is crucial but not the only strategy to contain the spread of COVID-19. A related set of papers provides effectiveness of social distancing, testing strategies, contact tracing, travel-related control measures and limits on public gatherings in limiting spread [ 14 – 17 ]. Many of these measures have also been implemented in our country, which could influence the results of the present study.…”

Impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in South Korea

“…Many studies have focused on either the change (Baig et al, 2022; Zafri et al, 2021 ) or vulnerability ( Shen et al, 2020 ; Zhu and Guo, 2021) of travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions on travel mobility may have been effective in containing its transmission ( Mahmoudi and Xiong, 2022 ). However, for a long time before the pandemic, travel mobility patterns developed both urban forms and transport networks ( Cervero, 2002 ; Hymel, 2019 ; Mokhtarian and Salomon, 2001 ).…”