How to develop and use scenarios

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

“…First, it usually provides a more qualitative and contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future, through using qualitative models, rather than being an approach that seeks numerical precision. Secondly, SA is usually designed to identify a set of possible futures, where the occurrence of each is plausible, although not assured and not necessarily probable (Schnaars, 1987). In this way, SA can be seen as a process of understanding, analysing and describing the behaviour of complex systems consistently and, as far as possible, completely.…”

“…Starting from the early 1970s, SA has been variously used as a forecasting tool by some multinational companies, mainly for investment strategies and longterm planning. Schnaars (1987) argued that most of the scenario techniques available at the time of his publication were still based on those developed by the Rand Corporation during the 1950s. At that time, Herman Kahn and Olaf Helmer were employed by the Rand Corporation as analysts for the development of military defence projects.…”

Integrating Scenarios into Life Cycle Assessment: Understanding the Value and Financial Feasibility of a Demountable Building

“…In contrast, they are imaginable stories describing subsequent events, situations or any 'development from the present to the future' [10] (p. 21). Therefore, 'scenario writing is based on the assumption that the future is not merely some mathematical manipulation of the past, but the confluence of many forces, past, present and future' explains Schnaars [11] (p. 106). Subjecting design alternatives to a series of such scenarios could allow appraising the resilience of their life cycle impact.…”

Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations

“…The origins can be traced back to Shell [34], and this influenced much of the early methodological development. In particular, Linneman and Kennell's [35] 'shirt-sleeve approach' was adopted by many, with slight adjustments based on the work of Schnaars [16]. The resulting methodology was primarily a top-down, qualitative sequence of steps whose aim was to produce a scenario 'snap-shot' in time at a particular date in the future.…”

“…Prediction is not the purpose however -their usefulness is in helping organisations prepare for an uncertain future by producing possible scenarios and identifying potential risks and opportunities in order to inform strategic decision making [16,17]. This is the focus of the approach presented here.…”