How to Predict Energy Consumption in BRICS Countries?

Abstract

Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa (BRICS) represent developing economies facing different energy and economic development challenges. The current study aims to predict energy consumption in BRICS at aggregate and disaggregate levels using the annual time series data set from 1992 to 2019 and to compare results obtained from a set of models. The time-series data are from the British Petroleum (BP-2019) Statistical Review of World Energy. The forecasting methodology bases on a novel Fractional-order Grey Model (FGM) with different order parameters. This study contributes to the literature by comparing the forecasting accuracy and the predictive ability of the with traditional ones, like standard and models. Moreover, it illustrates the view of BRICS’s nexus of energy consumption at aggregate and disaggregates levels using the latest available data set, which will provide a reliable and broader perspective. The Diebold-Mariano test results confirmed the equal predictive ability of for a specific range of order parameters and the model and the usefulness of both approaches for energy consumption efficient forecasting.

International trade and consumption‐based carbon emissions: Does energy efficiency and financial risk ensure sustainable environment?

“…In contrast, energy consumption in Russia go behind the global trend of decreasing rate. (Khan & Osi nska, 2021).…”

“…In 2018 energy output in China increased steadily, reaching 3.77 billion tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 18.7% of global production. Each year South Africa EX more than 45 Mtoe of coal to global markets as a net energy exporter; however domestic oil and natural gas production is lower and depends on the IM of most of these fuels (Khan & Osi nska, 2021).…”

Demand-Supply Gap in Energy Use in BRICS Countries with Special Reference to India - Emerging Challenges and Policies

“…Data used for the present study were the World Energy Balances for non-OECD nations between the years 1991-2015 published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as the latest World Energy Balances for OECD nations as primary sources, and uses descriptive statistics to analyze the final energy consumption characteristics of the G7 and BRICS nations. Khan and Osińska (2021) attempted to forecast the consumption of energy in BRICS nations using the yearly time series data set from the years 1992-2019 from British Petroleum (BP-2019) Statistical Review of World Energy and to check the results obtained from a set of models like Fractional-order Grey Model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, etc. The authors concluded that the BRICS countries should monitor energy production and consumption, focusing on the supply-demand gap of energy and its components and facilities provided to local and foreign investors.…”

A new approach to increased land reclamation rate in a coal mining subsidence area: A case‐study of Guqiao Coal Mine, China

“…Coal accounts for 57% of the primary energy consumption in China, and ~ 85% of it is produced by underground mining (Wang et al, 2021b). In 2020, China's coal output was 3.902 billion tons, an increase of 1.20% from 2019, and the coal consumption was 4.30 billion tons, an increase of 0.30% over 2019, which accounted for 50.40% and 54.30% of global output and consumption, respectively (Khan & Osińska, 2021). The exploitation and utilization of coal seams have ensured economic benefits and energy security (Xiao et al, 2020).…”