How Valid are the Reported Cases of People Infected with Covid-19 in the World?

Abstract

<jats:p>The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.</jats:p>

A quick Look at the Registered Cases of Covid-19 Throughout the World

“…On June 3, 2020, all cases of Covid-19 infections were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University database in the listed countries. Subsequently, the validity of the data was determined using two digital data analysis techniques based on Benford's Law, according to the procedure recently published by Isea [1] which specifies a new critical parameter based on the p-value, which said that is p-value must be greater than 0.05, then the information has received no manipulation or alteration.…”

“…Until June 3, more than six million cases have been registered throughout the world that is distributed in more than 190 countries and causing more than 380,000 recorded deaths according to the records John Hopkins University records. As a result of all this data, it has been possible to determine, for example, the credibility of the information according to a recent paper published by Isea [1] where he analyzed 23 countries using the Benford Law. It is interesting to comment that approximately a third of the countries do not satisfy this validation procedure criterion.…”

“…It is interesting to comment that approximately a third of the countries do not satisfy this validation procedure criterion. It is necessary to wait until the end of the epidemic in order to confirm these results [1].…”

“…It is interesting to note that Colombia passes Number of Covid-19 case records in 15 countries that have been analyzed in this paper. The others parameters indicated in this table has been explained in the reference[1].…”

An Analysis of the Reliability of Reported COVID-19 Data in Western Balkan Countries

“…This exponential trend was also observed by [10], in the number of infected patients in Italy. In another study by [11], a digital forensic analysis technique based on Benford's Law was used to analyze the COVID-19 data for 23 countries and conclude that results from some countries were suspicious of manipulated arranged data.…”