How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

Sierra, Juan Pablo; Arias, Paola A.; Vieira, Sara C.; Agudelo, Jhoana

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4010-5

Cited by 28 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Although it had been widely shown in literature that the latitude of the Choco jet core is usually restricted to the 5º N-7º N 20 range and it is maximum at 80ºW-90ºW (Poveda and Mesa, 2000;Sierra et al, 2017) we found that the optimal area for computing an index based solely on wind direction measurements at the surface level for this jet goes from 4º N to 15º N and extends from 120º W to 80º W. Over such a large area, the cumulative number of observations taken by ships, especially those sailing along the coast, resulted large enough to compute a meaningful index.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reason beyond this fortunate circumstance is the profound link between the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Choco jet (Waliser and Sommerville, 1994;Sierra et al, 2017). Forced by the north-south orientation of the South American coastland and the predominant position of the ITCZ north of the Equator between April and November, the southerly trade winds over the eastern Pacific cross the Equator acquiring a predominant westerly direction and entering the continent with maximum zonal velocity around the 5º N to 7º N latitude characteristic of the Choco jet core 30 (Poveda and Mesa, 2000;Sakamoto et al, 2011;Arias et al, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Tracking the Choco jet since the 19th Century by using historical wind direction measurements

Gallego

García‐Herrera

Gómez-Delgado

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the Choco jet since the 19th Century by using historical wind direction measurements

Gallego

García‐Herrera

Gómez-Delgado

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…One toward the south that is dry and more related to the drying effect of the cold Humboldt current, similar to the climate in the coastal region of northern Perú. The other region is situated toward the north and is wetter due to the influence of the Chocó low level Jet (LLJ) (Poveda and Mesa, 2000;Sierra et al, 2015Sierra et al, , 2018. This wetter region is one of the most important climatic features in northern South America, related to the Lloró climate, and one of the rainiest regions on Earth (Poveda and Mesa, 2000).…”

Section: Intra-model Uncertainties In Future Droughts Projections In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This wetter region is one of the most important climatic features in northern South America, related to the Lloró climate, and one of the rainiest regions on Earth (Poveda and Mesa, 2000). The representation of the Chocó LLJ by 26 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and 11 atmospheric climate models was evaluated by Sierra et al (2018), attributing less skill to models unable to represent the ITCZ strength and location in addition to poor resolution and limited representation of complex orographic features. Such limitations might explain the overestimation of droughts in the Coast of Ecuador.…”

Section: Intra-model Uncertainties In Future Droughts Projections In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Meteorological Droughts in Ecuador: Decreasing Trends and Associated Spatio-Temporal Features Derived From CMIP5 Models

et al. 2020

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Droughts are one of the most spatially extensive disasters that are faced by societies. Despite the urgency to define mitigation strategies, little research has been done regarding droughts related to climate change. The challenges are due to the complexity of droughts and to future precipitation uncertainty from Global Climate Models (GCMs). It is well-known that climate change will have more impact on developing countries. This is the case for Ecuador, which also has the additional challenges of lacking meteorological drought studies covering its three main regions: Coast, Highlands, and Amazon, and of having an intricate orography. Thus, this study assesses the spatio-temporal characteristics of present and future droughts in Ecuador under Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The 10 km dynamically downscaled products (DGCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) was used. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for droughts was calculated pixel-wise for present time 1981-2005 and for future time 2041-2070. The results showed a slightly decreasing trend for future droughts for the whole country, with a larger reduction for moderate droughts, followed by severe and extreme drought events. In the Coast and Highland regions, the intra-annual analysis showed a reduction of moderate and severe future droughts for RCP 4.5 and for RCP 8.5 throughout the year. Extreme droughts showed small and statistically non-significant decreases. In the Amazon region, moderate droughts showed increases from May to October, and decreases for the rest of the year. Additionally, severe drought increases are expected Thus, in the Amazon, the rainy period showed a decreasing trend of droughts, following the wetter in wet-and drier in dry paradigm. Climate change causes decision-making process and calls for adaptation strategies being more challenging. In this context, our study has contributed to better mapping the space-time evolution of future drought risk in Ecuador, thus providing valuable information for water management and decision making as Ecuador faces climate change.

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“…The CLLJ is directly linked to precipitation distribution and variability over Central America (Wang, ; Amador, ; Hidalgo et al, ; Durán‐Quesada and Alfaro, ; Durán‐Quesada et al, ), and its variability over northern South America (e.g., Arias et al, ). In addition, the low‐level circulation over the eastern Pacific, known as Choco Jet (CJ), has a prominent role on the hydro‐climatology of northwestern South America (Poveda and Mesa, ; Poveda et al, ; Arias et al, ; Sierra et al, , ; Hoyos et al, ). These circulations impact the regional convergence and precipitation patterns, and in turn the circulations themselves are sensitive to larger‐scale structures, including SST fields on the Atlantic and Pacific (see e.g., Back and Bretherton, ; Rauscher et al, ; Fuentes‐Franco et al, ) and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH, see e.g., Amador, ; Wang, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation

Martínez

Arias

Castro

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation, low‐level flow and atmospheric moisture transport fields over the Intra‐Americas region from a Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) multi‐decadal simulation are presented. The period of analysis is 1982–2012, and the focus is on mean monthly states and their variability. WRF results are compared to global precipitation products and to the Interim Reanalysis from the ECWMF (ERA‐Interim). An analysis of the coupling between precipitation over northern South America and regional scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and winds within ERA‐Interim and WRF is also presented. Over land, precipitation biases in WRF are mostly positive, especially over Central America and northern South America. This bias is associated with an excess in atmospheric moisture convergence in WRF compared to ERA‐Interim, which in turn is related to stronger low‐level circulation structures and differences in the moisture transport field between WRF and ERA‐Interim at the regional scale. The largest differences in the flow are observed over the eastern Pacific, where the flow is correlated with precipitation over southern Mexico, Central America and northern South America during the boreal summer. During early winter, correlation patterns of WRF precipitation and SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific are substantially weaker over western Texas and northwestern South America compared to the coupling between the global precipitation products and observed SSTs. For northwestern South America, the low correlation seems to be associated to a lack of coupling between regional scale winds and SST anomalies. During the boreal summer, the coupling between Caribbean SSTs and precipitation over parts of Mexico and Central America is stronger in WRF compared to observation‐based products.

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How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

Cited by 28 publications

References 64 publications

Tracking the Choco jet since the 19th Century by using historical wind direction measurements

Tracking the Choco jet since the 19th Century by using historical wind direction measurements

Future Meteorological Droughts in Ecuador: Decreasing Trends and Associated Spatio-Temporal Features Derived From CMIP5 Models

Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation

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