How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?

Abstract

Export growth, Terms of trade, China, India, General equilibrium, F11, F12, F43, F47,

The impact of Chinese competition on third markets: An analysis by region and technological category

“…These results corroborate the conclusion of Dimaranan et al. (), whose simulations revealed that Chinese growth would intensify competition in manufacturing product markets, and that manufacturing industries from several countries would be negatively affected. Coefficients estimated by 2SLS of the other model's variables present the expected sign and are statistically significant in 1%.…”

“…However, the GTAP model depends on a large set of parameters to simulate forecasts for the desired period, and is very responsive to the adopted parameters, which can significantly alter results, as seen in Dimaranan et al. (). In this study, an extension of the gravitational model capable of controlling several effects that impact bilateral trade, without depending on constraints presented by the GTAP model, was used.…”

“…Dimaranan, Ianchovichina, and Martin () also assess Chinese competition in third markets. These authors noted that, while China's growth creates opportunities to its trade partners, it produces strong competition in internal and external markets.…”

International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

“…Moreover, in both the developed economies and the growing Asian developing economies wage distribution effects were shown to depend on capital-skill complementarity (Tyers & Yang, 2000;Winchester & Greenaway, 2007). 6 Subsequent assessments include that by Dimaranan, Ianchovichina, and Martin (2009), which finds gains and losses across other developing regions stemming from growth in China and India, but only small net effects on the developed regions. Francois and Wignaraja (2008) use a similar approach to focus on the implications for the industrial economies of expanded intra-Asian trade.…”

Global economic sustainability indicator: analysis and policy options for the Copenhagen process

“…At the same time, one may argue that until 2050 there will be considerable global population growth and most of the output growth will come from Asia-including China and India. In these countries, emphasis on fighting global warming is not naturally a top priority, rather economic catching-up figures prominently in the political system are; and economic analysis suggests that China and India still have a large potential for economic catching-up and long term growth, respectively (Dimaranan et al 2009). Nevertheless, one may emphasize that economic globalization also creates new opportunities for international technology transfer and for trade with environmental (green) goods.…”