International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

Tyers, Rodney

doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2015.01.002

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…More so than the productivity and factor endowment changes, this reversal of consumption behaviour is central to China's current account imbalance and hence to the international effects of interest. Notably, the shocks introduced here parallel those considered by Tyers () but the key differences between the two studies are, first, that the model embodies substantially different behaviour (as indicated in the previous section), second, that the closure chosen is different, with a return to exchange rate targeting assumed in this case, and third, that the magnitudes of the shocks are informed by more recent information and so more optimistic about current Chinese performance.…”

Section: Effects Of the Transition To Consumption‐led Growthmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The transition to growth more dependent on consumption commenced after the GFC, and according to official statistics, around 2010. Since then the imbalances have declined and China's expanding demand has probably helped sustain employment in the large advanced economies (Tyers, ). These changes have accompanied a slow‐down in Chinese overall growth performance, a decline in the investment share of GDP and increasing financial volatility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… The literature dates back to the early 1990s, as surveyed by Tyers (). Recent contributions to the analysis of labour market effects include Haskel et al .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Tyers

2016

Scottish J Political Eco

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China's comparatively rapid consumption growth since 2010 and its increasing economic similarity with advanced economies, imply that consumer and business confidence are now central to performance, changing its global impacts and rendering recession more likely. The international effects of its new growth pattern are quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption‐led growth is shown to foster employment abroad while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China's policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.

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Section: Effects Of the Transition To Consumption‐led Growthmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Tyers

2016

Scottish J Political Eco

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“…This is not experimented with here but is assumed to remain high, at 1.17 males per female throughout all scenarios. 12 See the survey in Tyers (2015). The savings glut hypothesis is reviewed by Arora et al (2015).…”

Section: Demographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications

2017

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Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two‐child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies.

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“… Recent contributions to the extensive literature on Asian net saving include those by Arora et al . (), Tyers (, ,b) and Golley et al . ().…”

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confidence: 96%

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Taylor

Tyers

2017

Economic Record

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Slack OECD economic performance and weaker macroeconomic policy support Summers's reuse of the phrase ‘secular stagnation’. Globalisation has redirected growth towards emerging economies, and anticipated rates of return on investment are impaired by perceived risk, institutionalised risk aversion, ageing and dependency, declining commitments to public investment and research and development with rising shares directed to health, retained trade distortions, industrial concentration and slower human capital accumulation, not to mention unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

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International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

Cited by 25 publications

References 64 publications

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

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