HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Liang, Ciao Kai; West, J. Jason; Silva, Raquel A.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Davila, Yanko; Dentener, Frank; Emmons, L. K.; Flemming, Johannes; Folberth, Gerd; Henze, D. K.; İm, Ulaş; Jonson, Jan Eiof; Keating, Terry; Kucsera, Tom; Lenzen, Allen; Lin, Meiyun; Lund, Marianne T.; Pan, Xiaohua; Park, Rokjin J.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Sekiya, Takashi; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko

doi:10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018

Cited by 68 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 63 publications

(127 reference statements)

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“…We chose to use the older CRF to enable comparison with previous work for China (Li et al 2018). Finally, the 95% CIs of avoided premature deaths reported here only represent uncertainties in the CRF, and recent studies suggested that it may be exceeded by uncertainties from either simulated air pollution among different models (Liang et al 2018) or climate variability (Saari et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030

Zhang

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate policies targeting CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, thus mitigating air pollution and associated health impacts. Previous work has examined co-benefits of climate policy from reducing PM2.5 in rapidly-developing countries such as China, but have not examined co-benefits from ozone and its transboundary impact for both PM2.5 and ozone. Here, we compare the air quality and health co-benefits of China’s climate policy on both PM2.5 and ozone in China to their co-benefits in three downwind and populous countries (South Korea, Japan and the United States) using a coupled modeling framework. In a policy scenario consistent with China’s pledge to peak CO2 emissions in approximately 2030, avoided premature deaths from ozone reductions are 54 300 (95% confidence interval: 37 100–71 000) in China in 2030, nearly 60% of those from PM2.5. Total avoided premature deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the US are 1200 (900–1600), 3500 (2800–4300), and 1900 (1400–2500), respectively. Total avoided deaths in South Korea and Japan are dominated by reductions in PM2.5-related mortality, but ozone plays a more important role in the US. Similar to co-benefits for PM2.5 in China, co-benefits of China’s policy for ozone and for both pollutants in those downwind countries also rise with increasing policy stringency.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030

Zhang

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Increased premature mortality due to ozone exposure is represented with the exposure-response model for ozone-related premature mortality of Turner et al (2016) (equation (1)). The cost function is the annual continental US premature mortality attributable to ozone exposure above a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) (Lim et al 2014, Cohen et al 2017, Liang et al 2018, M, defined as…”

Section: Premature Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The value of the TMREL for the annual average MDA8 is set at 28.9 ppb by taking the average of the two LCC values for North America that are estimated based on Turner et al (2016), in which the annual average MDA8 is also used as the exposure metric (Malley et al 2017, Liang et al 2018.…”

Section: Premature Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the exposure response models of Jerrett et al (2009) and Turner et al (2016), Malley et al (2017) estimated that 26 000 and 58 700 respiratory-related deaths, respectively, were attributable to ozone exposure over assumed low concentration cutoffs (LCC) in North America during 2010. Similarly, Liang et al (2018) estimated that 15 000 annual ozone-related deaths occurred due to respiratory complications in North America based on Jerrett et al (2009). The differences between the Malley et al (2017) and Liang et al (2018) estimates largely arise from the use of different model resolutions and baseline mortality data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, Liang et al (2018) estimated that 15 000 annual ozone-related deaths occurred due to respiratory complications in North America based on Jerrett et al (2009). The differences between the Malley et al (2017) and Liang et al (2018) estimates largely arise from the use of different model resolutions and baseline mortality data. Pappin and Hakami (2013) used the adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to establish linkages between sources of NO x emissions and two types of ozone metrics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Elucidating emissions control strategies for ozone to protect human health and public welfare within the continental United States

Lyu

Capps

Hakami

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Ground-level ozone, which forms photochemically in the atmosphere from precursor emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds, is a criteria pollutant that harms human health and public welfare. For a representative summer episode, premature mortality and potential productivity losses (PPLs) of selected crops and trees attributable to ozone exposure have been quantified using ozone fields from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We applied exposure-response models for the increased risk of premature mortality due to long-term exposure to ozone over a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and for the reduced accumulation of vegetative biomass for four crop species and eleven tree species using the W126 metric designed to capture impacts on plants. To elucidate which emissions contributed to these disbenefits, we applied adjoint-based sensitivity analysis, which efficiently estimates sensitivities of concentration-based metrics with respect to numerous emissions parameters simultaneously. The adjoint of CMAQ was applied to the continental US to calculate the influence of spatially-resolved ozone precursor emissions on the annual average, domain-wide daily maximum 8 h average over the TMREL (elevated MDA8), premature mortality attributable to exposure to ozone above the TMREL, and PPLs. These quantities provide the impact in terms of the percent reduction in precursor emissions. Additionally, locations where similar percent reductions in ozone precursor emissions would impact one or more endpoints greater than average have been identified. NO x emissions were found to contribute most to the three metrics. The distinct spatial patterns of emissions influences on public welfare disbenefits as compared to the elevated MDA8 and premature mortality suggest that the current regulatory averaging time motivates different emissions control strategies than those that could most directly protect public welfare.

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Air quality response in China linked to the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation

Miyazaki

Bowman

Sekiya

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19 in China hinged on severe restrictions to human movement starting January 23rd, 2020 in Wuhan and subsequently to other provinces. Here, we quantify the ancillary impacts on air pollution and human health using inverse emissions estimates based on multiple satellite observations. We find that Chinese NOx emissions were reduced by 36% from early January to mid-February, with more than 80% of reductions occurring after their respective lockdown in most provinces. These emissions declines increased surface ozone by up to 16 ppb over northern China but decreased PM2.5 by up to 23 μgm nationwide. Air pollution appears to have substantially offset hospital admissions related to COVID-19, augmenting mitigation efforts, such as in the Hubei province with ˜400 reduced admissions. Changes in human exposure are associated with about 2,100 increased ozone-related morbidity incidences and avoidance of at least 60,000 PM2.5-related morbidity incidences.

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HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Cited by 68 publications

References 63 publications

Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030

Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030

Elucidating emissions control strategies for ozone to protect human health and public welfare within the continental United States

Air quality response in China linked to the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation

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