Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather

Abstract

Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080. Our results allow increased understanding of the interacting roles of anthropogenic stressors in altering the regional expression of future wildfire risk.

Orbital Forcing Strongly Influences the Poleward Shift of the Spring Himalayan Jet During the Past Millennium

“…During spring, the greenhouse gas forcing displaced the Himalayan jet toward the equator and the ozone and aerosol forcing toward the pole, canceling each other and therefore resulting in no significant trend in HJL. Similar cancellations between greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing have also been found in several other aspects of climate variability (Stevenson, Capotondi, et al, 2017;Touma et al, 2021). The equatorward trend in spring Himalayan jet in greenhouse gas-only forcing is consistent with the projected equatorward shift of the STJ under global warming (Zhou et al, 2019).…”

A century of warming on Caribbean reefs

“…Greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, intensifying natural disturbances (e.g., fires and cyclonic storms), and modifying countless other aspects of the environment [1][2][3]. This is causing extinctions, altering species composition, and degrading nearly every ecosystem on earth [4,5].…”

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Emitted from Open Burning and Stove Burning of Biomass: A Brief Review

“…The PAHs from biomass burning represented a high proportion of the total emissions, which might lead to relatively high health risks. To promote the eco-friendly and healthy development of biomass fuels, it is crucial to investigate the characteristics of PAHs emitted from biomass burning and their influencing factors [ 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 ].…”