Human effects on the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, central Arizona, 1910–2005 and 2005–2110, using a regional groundwater flow model

Garner, Bradley D.; Pool, D. R.; Tillman, Fred D.; Forbes, Brandon T.

doi:10.3133/sir20135029

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…A comprehensive evaluation of the calibrated simulation of groundwater flow in Northern Arizona by the NARGFM is in Pool et al (). All values are reported in acre‐feet or acre‐feet per year (af or afy) in addition to SI units to be consistent with Blasch et al (), Pool et al (), Garner et al () and water management planners in the state and region. All values are approximated.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 72%

“…For the interpretive simulation period from 2006 to 2099, all other parameters, including pumping and ET of riparian areas were kept at the same values used for the last stress period (2000–2005) of the calibrated groundwater‐flow model. Other regional water supply studies have simulated changes in pumping that may result from increased human population in the future (ADWR ; USDI Reclamation ; Garner et al ). However, these variables were not changed in this study because the objective was to isolate the impact of forest treatments and climate change on groundwater recharge.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

2014

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The purpose of this study was to develop an interpretive groundwater-flow model to assess the impacts that planned forest restoration treatments and anticipated climate change will have on large regional, deep (>400 m), semi-arid aquifers. Simulations were conducted to examine how tree basal area reductions impact groundwater recharge from historic conditions to 2099. Novel spatial analyses were conducted to determine areas and rates of potential increases in groundwater recharge. Changes in recharge were applied to the model by identifying zones of basal area reduction from planned forest restoration treatments and applying recharge-change factors to these zones. Over a 10-year period of forest restoration treatment, a 2.8% increase in recharge to one adjacent groundwater basin (the Verde Valley sub-basin) was estimated, compared to conditions that existed from 2000 to 2005. However, this increase in recharge was assumed to quickly decline after treatment due to regrowth of vegetation and forest underbrush and their associated increased evapotranspiration. Furthermore, simulated increases in groundwater recharge were masked by decreases in water levels, stream baseflow, and groundwater storage resulting from surface water diversions and groundwater pumping. These results indicate that there is an imbalance between water supply and demand in this regional, semi-arid aquifer. Current water management practices may not be sustainable into the far future and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize this water budget imbalance.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

2014

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“…In this study, summer streamflow prediction was improved significantly by addition of the prior P w (Equation ), consistent with winter baseflow recharge and seasonal carry‐over of stored moisture (Wyatt et al., 2015). Given that winter precipitation and associated baseflow have declined in the LCRB over recent decades (Garner et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2021) the magnitude and sustainability of increased post‐fire peak flow will depend on the degree to which surface versus groundwater processes control summer streamflow generation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Exploratory plots of annual (or winter/summer) Q versus P showed a pronounced breakpoint in many watersheds as opposed to a continuous linear or nonlinear relationship. In dry years or seasons with less than a given threshold P , Q was low but relatively constant (i.e., independent of P ), possibly due to groundwater discharge (Garner et al., 2013). Meanwhile, wetter years or seasons when P was above the threshold showed an increasing linear relationship between P and Q .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Response to Wildfire Differs With Season and Elevation in Adjacent Headwaters of the Lower Colorado River Basin

Robles

Scott

Knowles

2022

Water Resources Research

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Fires increasingly impact forested watersheds, with uncertain water resources impacts. While research has revealed higher peak flows, longer‐term yields may increase or decrease following fire, and the mechanisms regulating post‐fire streamflow are little explored. Hydrologic response to disturbance is poorly understood in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), where snowmelt often occurs before the growing season. Here, we quantify annual streamflow changes following what have been, before 2020, two of the largest wildfires in the modern history of the contiguous United States. We evaluate nine nested watersheds with >50 years records within the Salt River Basin to evaluate fire impact over ranges of elevation, climate, vegetation, burned area, and spatial scale. We employ double‐mass comparison of paired watersheds, pre‐ and post‐fire runoff ratio comparison, multiple linear regression of climate and fire, and time‐trend analysis. Precipitation and streamflow are decoupled during dry periods; therefore we conduct separate change detection for wet and dry periods. Post‐fire summer streamflow increased by 24%–38% at all elevations. While winter/spring streamflow remained constant in the highest, coldest headwaters, winter flows declined in lower‐elevation headwaters. As a result, basin annual streamflow declined. These results support emerging understanding that warm semiarid watersheds respond differently to disturbance than well‐studied, colder watersheds. Asynchrony between winter snowmelt and summer evaporative demand is likely important when considering long‐term impacts of forest management and disturbance on water supply in the LCRB.

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“…We focused our study on the unregulated upper Verde River mainstem, where development is primarily limited to livestock grazing and reductions in baseflows are a result of groundwater withdrawals (Garner et al. ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing drought favors nonnative fishes in a dryland river: evidence from a multispecies demographic model

et al. 2019

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Understanding how novel biological assemblages are structured in relation to dynamic environmental regimes remains a central challenge in ecology. Demographic approaches to modeling species assemblages show promise because they seek to represent fundamental relationships between population dynamics and environmental conditions. In dryland rivers, rapidly changing climate conditions have shifted drought and flooding regimes with implications for fish communities. Our goals were to (1) develop a mechanistic multispecies demographic model that links native and nonnative species with river flow regimes, and (2) evaluate demographic responses in population and community structure to changing flow regimes. Each fish species was represented by a stage‐structured matrix, and species were coupled together into a multispecies framework through density‐dependent relationships in reproduction. Then, community dynamics were simulated through time using annual flow events classified from gaged streamflow data. We parameterized the model with vital rates and flow–response relationships for a community of native and nonnative fishes using literature‐derived values. We applied the simulation model to the Verde River (Arizona, USA), a major tributary within the Colorado River Basin, for the past half century (1964–2017). Model validation revealed a match between model projections and relative abundance trends observed in a long‐term fish monitoring dataset (1994–2008). At the beginning of the validation period (1994), model and survey observations showed that native species comprised approximately 80% of total abundance. Model projections beyond the survey data (2008–2017) predicted a shift from a native dominant to a nonnative dominant assemblage, coinciding with increasing drought frequency. Trade‐offs between native and nonnative species dominance emerged from differences in mortality in response to the changing sequence of major flow events including spring floods, summer high flows, and droughts. In conclusion, the demographic approach presented here provides a flexible modeling framework that is readily applied to other stream systems and species by adjusting or transferring, when appropriate, species vital rates and flow‐event thresholds.

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Human effects on the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, central Arizona, 1910–2005 and 2005–2110, using a regional groundwater flow model

Cited by 8 publications

References 6 publications

Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

Streamflow Response to Wildfire Differs With Season and Elevation in Adjacent Headwaters of the Lower Colorado River Basin

Increasing drought favors nonnative fishes in a dryland river: evidence from a multispecies demographic model

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