Hurricane hazard modeling: The past, present, and future

Vickery, Peter J.; Masters, Forrest J.; Powell, Mark D.; Wadhera, Dhiraj

doi:10.1016/j.jweia.2009.05.005

Cited by 206 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For S, we follow Boose et al (2004) and assume it to be 1. We also do not know the surface friction to directly determine F. However, Vickery et al (2009) note that in open water the reduction factor is about 0.7 and reduces by 14% on the coast and by 28% 50 km inland. We thus adopt a reduction factor that linearly decreases within this range as we consider points i further inland from the coast.…”

Section: Typhoon Maximum Wind Speed (W Ij )mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines

Blanc

Strobl

2016

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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This study quantifies the impact of typhoons on rice production in the Philippines. To this end, satellitederived reflectance data are used to detect the location of rice fields at 500-m resolution. Utilizing typhoon-track data within a wind field model and satellite-derived precipitation measures, fragility curves are then employed to proxy the damage of storms on rice production within each rice field. The results from a panel spatial regression model show that typhoons substantially reduced local provincial production in the quarter of the strike, having caused losses of up to 12.5 million tons since 2001. Using extreme value theory to predict future losses, the results suggest that a typhoon like the recent Haiyan, which is estimated to have caused losses of around 260 000 tons, has a return period of 13 years. This methodology can provide a relatively timely tool for rice damage assessments after tropical cyclones in the region.

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Section: Typhoon Maximum Wind Speed (W Ij )mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines

Blanc

Strobl

2016

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…The main purposes of, and recent improvements in, hurricane hazard modelling based on numerical simulations have been outlined by Vickery et al (2009a and2009b). While acknowledging that modelling is an important tool for hurricane risk assessment, Levinosn et al (2010) address some of the issues that may exacerbate sampling problems for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications and Vickery et al (2009c) discuss the uncertainty associated with hurricane wind speeds estimates for the US.…”

Section: Extreme Climate Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatology in support of climate risk management

McGregor

2015

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

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“…Typhoon estimations has developed in great demand for reliable risk-based technical evaluation, which is rising along with the increasing in exposure to stronger, more often, rapidly changing and less predictable hurricanes (Vickery et al 2009). Because existing approaches directly base on available observed data (Emanuel et al 2006), the most crucial limitation relates to the small sample size because hurricanes are both relatively infrequent and small in terms of the length of coastlines affected by these typhoons each year.…”

Section: Data Scarcity Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

General hurricane track and intensity model

Nguyen¹,

Gelder²

2012

Comprehensive Flood Risk Management

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This paper presents a new modeling technique to simulate the entire track of hurricane, starting with their initial points and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations over the sea. The theoretical framework was first described in the literature by Vickery et al. (2000) and is extended in this study by introducing a new formula and several substantial adjustments. The results show acceptable accuracy, even if the input data are for a short period. For the Vietnam case, the research successfully generates a large database of synthetic storm tracks on the basis of a limited historical track record and sea surface temperature. The model is evaluated through the comparisons between the key storm statistics derived from the observed and simulated data over the entire research area (i.e. the South China Sea). Finally, application of this method to risk assessments is proposed.

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Hurricane hazard modeling: The past, present, and future

Cited by 206 publications

References 48 publications

Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines

Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines

Climatology in support of climate risk management

General hurricane track and intensity model

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