Hybridizing Alternative Models of an Epidemic Diffusion Process

Haggett, Peter

doi:10.2307/143360

Cited by 51 publications

(25 citation statements)

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“…Here we present a different methodology for linking large databases, geographic information systems, and stochastic simulations in constructing predictive probabilistic models of spatial dynamics. Similar approaches have been used to evaluate how multiple factors influence the spatial dynamics and incidence of measles in Bristol, U.K. (31).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Smith

Lucey

Waller

et al. 2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

325

324

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Often as an epidemic spreads, the leading front is irregular, reflecting spatial variation in local transmission rates. We developed a methodology for quantifying spatial variation in rates of disease spread across heterogeneous landscapes. Based on data for epidemic raccoon rabies in Connecticut, we developed a stochastic spatial model of rabies spread through the state's 169 townships. We quantified spatial variation in transmission rates associated with human demography and key habitat features. We found that large rivers act as semipermeable barriers, leading to a 7-fold reduction in the local rates of propagation. By combining the spatial distribution of major rivers with long-distance dispersal we were able to account for the observed irregular pattern of disease spread across the state without recourse to direct assessment of host-pathogen populations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Smith

Lucey

Waller

et al. 2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

325

324

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Section: Models For 1he Spread Of Lllvmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Structured models have been developed for a number of diseases in addition to sexually transmitted diseases. These other diseases include, for example, measles (Haggett, 1972(Haggett, , 1976 Oiff et al, 1975) influenza (Baroyan, Rvachev, and lvannikov, 1977;Rvachev and Longini, 1985;Longini, 1988; Castillo-Chavez, Hethcote et al , 1988, smallpox (Travis and Lenhart, 1987), and hepatitis A (Sattenspiel, 1987;Sattenspiel and Simon, 1988).Most of the existing models for t:I:te transmission of mv consider only the sexual transmission of the disease, largely because, for historical reasons, there are better data available for this problem. A few recent papers, however, address the transmission of the disease within intravenous drug-using populations (for example, Kaplan, 1989;Blower and Medley, 1990).…”

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confidence: 99%

Environmental context, social interactions, and the spread of HIV

Sattenspiel

Castillo‐Chavez

1990

American J Hum Biol

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The spread of HIV through a population is influenced by many factors. These include the frequency and type of sexual activity, age distribution of the population, use of intravenous drugs and behaviors associated with their use, the pattern of infectivity of the virus during the several stages of the infection, geographic location, and the patterns of interaction among individuals and the context in which those interactions occur.A number of questions about the natural history and epidemiology of AIDS remain unanswered. Since the disease has only recently been recognized, historical data are unavailable to aid in answering these questions. Mathematical models provide one approach that can be of use in understanding the spread of the disease.Because of the complexity of the biology and epidemiology of AIDS, useful models must focus on specific aspects of the disease. In addition to a brief review of existing models for the spread of AIDS, a new model which incorporates the effects of social context operating at the time of a sexual.encounter is described. The model considers the spread of the disease in a population of homosexual men divided into groups based on relative risk for the disease. Individuals are assigned to a specific group on the basis of their normal sexual activities, but they may take on the characteristics of a different risk group temporarily given the conditions operating when they engage in a sexual encounter. Results from preliminary analyses of the new model indicate that the major effects of incorporating social context include a decrease in the number of cases of the disease, sometimes by an order of magnitude or more, delayed spread of the disease, and a decreased impact of the disease on low and medium risk groups. 2The AIDS epidemic is one of the major public health emergencies of this century. This has stimulated highly productive research efforts in a number of fields, including epidemiology, immunology, clinical medicine, sociology, and applied mathematics. This paper will review the contributions made by applied mathematicians and mathematical or theoretical epidemiologists to understanding the spread of AIDS in modem populations. In addition, a new model which incorporates factors operating at the time of contact between individuals will be described.A number of mathematical models have been developed to describe the transmission system of IDV, the virus responsible for AIDS. These models help to provide a framework with which to explore the nature of disease spread through a population, the effects of behavior change on the rates of spread, the effectiveness of control strategies, the consequences of different patterns of contact among individuals in a population, and other similar questions. Analysis of such models provides valuable knowledge and understanding of biological and social factors influencing disease transmission -understanding that may not be available from statistical analyses. NATURAL IDSTORY AND EPIDEMIOLOOY OF AIDSAIDS is a clinical syndrome associated with seve...

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“…Moreover, this perspective is implicit in a most illuminating recent analysis of the effects of overall climate change on the oceans' fisheries (e.g., Cushing, 1982 , 1978) .A:re the scale approaches suggested by the oceanographers' use of the Stommel diagram appropriate for the analysis of the more general problems involving interactions among terrestrial ecosystems, societies, and climates? We should not expect too much, for the significant technical problems of spectral or autocorrelation analyses in marine systems become even worse as we move from the marine to the terrestrial realm due to the relative inhomogeneity of the terrestrial environment (see Haggett, 1976;Cliff and Drd, 1975;Curry and Bannister, 1974;Granger, 1975). Nonetheless, when due attention is paid to the role of aperiodic (noncyclical) variation, the scale perspective has demonstrated sufficient potential to warrant careful evaluation in the context of climate impact studies.…”

Section: !J!j Scales Of Oceanographic Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems, and Societies

Clark

1987

Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences

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Abstract. Climates, ecosystems, and societies interact over a tremendous range of temporal and spatial scales. Scholarly work on forecasting climate impacts has tended to emphasize different questions, variables, and modes of explanation depending on the primary scale of interest. Much of the current debate on cause and effect, vulnerability, marginality, and the like stems from uncritical or unconscious efforts to transfer experience, conclusions, and insights across scales. This paper sketches a perspective from which the relative temporal and spatial dimensions of climatic, ecological, and social processes can be more clearly perceived, and their potential interactions more critically evaluated. Quantitative estimates of a variety of characteristic scales are derived and compared, leading to specific recommendations for the design of climate impact studies.

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Hybridizing Alternative Models of an Epidemic Diffusion Process

Cited by 51 publications

References 1 publication

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Environmental context, social interactions, and the spread of HIV

Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems, and Societies

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