Hydro-meteorological drought risk assessment using linear and nonlinear multivariate methods

Azhdari, Zahra; Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin; Zamani, Hossein; Shekari, Marzieh; Singh, Vijay P.

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2021.103046

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It seems that the most important factor for runoff incompatibility behavior is snowfall in some years. The results of Azhdari et al [53,59] also confirmed runoff incompatibility in arid and semi-arid regions. It seems that the reason for this incompatibility is the changes in the precipitation regime and the complexity of the mechanism for converting precipitation to runoff in these areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…According to Azhdari et al [53], the composite indices reflected the comprehensive moisture status of the catchment well and were not affected by a single element. Presented analysis confirmed the study of Azhdari et al [53], who found runoff was the main source of inconsistency in the study region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the current study, the copula was selected based on the P value, which was obtained from the bootstrap method [53]. The higher the P value, the better the copula.…”

Section: Estimation Of Parameters and Goodness Of Fit Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Achite

Bazrafshan

Wałęga

et al. 2022

Water

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A persistent precipitation deficiency (meteorological drought) could spread to surface water bodies and produce a hydrological drought. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are thus closely related, even though they are separated by a time lag. For this reason, it is paramount for water resource planning and for drought risk analysis to study the connection between these two types of drought. With this aim, in this study, both meteorological and hydrological drought were analyzed in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin (Northwest Algeria). In particular, data from six rainfall stations and one hydrometric station for the period 1972–2018 were used to evaluate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) at multiple timescales (1, 2, 3, 4, …, 12 months). By means of a copula function, the conditional return period for both types of drought was evaluated. Results evidenced that runoff is characterized by high level of temporal correlation in comparison to rainfall. Moreover, the composite index JDHMI (Joint Deficit Hydro-meteorological Index) was evaluated. This index is able to reflect the simultaneous hydrological and meteorological behavior at different timescales of 1–12 months well and can present the probability of a common hydrological and meteorological deficit situation more accurately and realistically compared to precipitation or runoff-based indicators. It was found that, over the analyzed basin, the average severity of combined hydro-meteorological drought (JDHMI) was 10.19, with a duration of 9 months and a magnitude of 0.93.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

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Bazrafshan

Wałęga

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Joe, Gaussian/Normal and Gumbel Copula are Archimedean Copula family members, which were found statistically best fitted in the construction of joint multivariate distribution at the 3‐, 6‐, 9‐ and 12‐month time scales for most of the sub‐basins. The results of test goodness of fit were used to identify the best fitting Copula members (Table 7; Azhdari et al, 2021; Bazrafshan et al, 2021). The density and cumulative density function of the non‐parametric bi‐variate MSDI along with its corresponding contour structures are illustrated in Figures 7 and 8.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate drought analysis for the temperature homogeneous regions of India: Lessons from the Gomati River basin

Bhatt

Mall

Raju

et al. 2022

Meteorological Applications

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Droughts inflict significant loss on agricultural economies. Gomati River basin, the area of the present study, is located within the Ganga River floodplains, which approximately coincide with the north central temperature homogeneous region (NCTHR) of India. Gomati basin is a non-perennial one supporting water intensive agricultural crops. To ascertain the occurrence of droughts (if any) from 1986 to 2015 within Gomati River basin, in terms of inter-dependencies of drought causing variables through study of multivariate drought indices, is the main objective of the present study. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used in combination with the Copula approach to construct multivariate standardized drought indices (MSDIs) for drought onset detection through simulation in the face of data scarcity. Although MSDI based assessment of the basin as a whole did not detect any droughts, in the upper basin, MSDIs indicated the possibilities of impending agricultural droughts marked by their consistent variability around near-normal conditions. This methodology can be used to detect drought situations in data scarce non-perennial river basins within the Ganga River floodplains including the NCTHR of India.

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“…The copula function is a kind of joint distribution that can construct the marginal distribution as an arbitrary distribution, which can effectively describe the correlation among variables and has a wide range of applications in hydrology and water resources [10][11][12][13][14][15]. Azhdari et al [16] constructed three composite hydrometeorological indices, including JDHMI-CCA, JDHMI-PCA, and JDHMI-copula, using typical correlation analysis (CCA), principal component analysis (PCA), and copula-based methods, and explored the mechanism of linear and nonlinear methods in drought status assessment. Wang et al [17] established a new meteorological and hydrological drought index (MSDIP) using streamflow and precipitation as indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Hydrological and Meteorological Composite Drought Characteristics Based on Baseflow and Precipitation

Huang,

Zhang,

Liu

et al. 2024

Water

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Traditional univariate drought indices may not be sufficient to reflect comprehensive information on drought. Therefore, this paper proposes a new composite drought index that can comprehensively characterize meteorological and hydrological drought. In this study, the new drought index was established by combining the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized baseflow index (SBI) for the Jiaojiang River Basin (JRB) using the copula function. The prediction model was established by training random forests on past data, and the driving force behind the combined drought index was explored through the LIME algorithm. The results show that the established composite drought index combines the advantages of SPI and SBI in drought forecasting. The monthly and annual droughts in the JRB showed an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020, but the temporal characteristics of the changes in each subregion were different. The accuracies of the trained random forest model for heavy drought in Baizhiao (BZA) and Shaduan (SD) stations were 83% and 88%, respectively. Furthermore, the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) interpretation identified the essential precipitation, baseflow, and evapotranspiration features that affect drought. This study provides reliable and valid multivariate indicators for drought monitoring and can be applied to drought prediction in other regions.

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Hydro-meteorological drought risk assessment using linear and nonlinear multivariate methods

Cited by 19 publications

References 29 publications

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Multivariate drought analysis for the temperature homogeneous regions of India: Lessons from the Gomati River basin

Assessment of Hydrological and Meteorological Composite Drought Characteristics Based on Baseflow and Precipitation

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