Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America*

Ballard, Tristan; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kushnir, Yochanan; Nakamura, Jennifer A.; Henderson, Naomi

doi:10.1175/ei-d-14-0004.1

Cited by 35 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…For example, a severe regional drought during the late 1980s (particularly in 1988) induced a decline in waterbody bird abundances and an eastward shift in waterfowl numbers (Ballard et al. ); this was followed by a very wet period in the early 1990s. When examining Figs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Ballard et al. ), management efforts may be needed that manipulate hydroperiods or vegetation cover to promote wildlife populations in the area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The shifting climatic regime of the PPR may thus offset waterbody losses from land conversion, which may account for why there has been an increase in breeding waterfowl numbers from 1955 to the present, particularly since a wetter phase beginning in 1993 (Ballard et al. , McKenna et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

et al. 2019

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Understanding how bird populations respond to changes in waterbody availability in the climatically variable Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America hinges on being able to couple hydrological and climate modeling to represent potential future landscapes. Model experiments run with the Pothole Complex Hydrologic Model using downscaled climate data (variables relating to precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at 1/8° spatial resolution under four general circulation climate models and two gas emissions scenarios) were used to forecast the abundances of six focal wetland‐dependent bird species in the Missouri Coteau portion of the PPR, providing ensemble scenarios at a spatial scale relevant to resource management. Although the projected number of May ponds (waterbodies present during bird breeding season) fluctuated through time with some decadal periodicity (and with the number present in a given year reflecting abundance over the previous three years), the ensemble model average indicated an increase in the average number of waterbodies present by the turn of the next century. Overall, the model experiments conservatively projected an 11.75% increase in the number of waterbodies present by 2090–2099 compared to a baseline period from 1967 to 2005 in the PPR. Wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance were significantly associated with temporal patterns and decadal periodicity in waterbody dynamics. Because of the strong associations between wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance and the number of prairie potholes, projected waterbody increases are forecasted to result in an 11.97% overall increase in occurrence and 8.63% increase in abundance of the six focal species by the end of the 21st century; these results contrast with forecasted drought‐associated declines in waterbodies and birds in the PPR. This integrated hydrological–climatological approach offers a means of assessing how wetland‐dependent bird populations may respond to changes in wetland habitat availability due to a changing climate. Our results provide information that can help managers decide how to mitigate the effects of climate shifts on the distribution of wetland habitat and biota.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Ballard et al. ), management efforts may be needed that manipulate hydroperiods or vegetation cover to promote wildlife populations in the area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

et al. 2019

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“…A trade‐off between current and future conservation investments may arise because general circulation models (or global climate models; GCMs) on average project a warmer climate in the PPR, along with a relatively small average increase in precipitation (Ballard et al. ). The net effect is projected to be a drier climate, particularly during summer, as the increase in precipitation is not expected to offset projected higher rates of evapotranspiration associated with higher temperatures (Cook et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Sofaer

Skagen

Barsugli

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

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“…An increase in precipitation would result in increased soil moisture as shown by Ballard et al . () based on future climate predictions for the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains. Despite the fact that there was no significant change in precipitation and temperature, soil moisture appears to increase in all three watersheds.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

Paul

Rajib

Ahiablame

2016

J American Water Resour Assoc

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This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.

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Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America*

Cited by 35 publications

References 31 publications

Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

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