Hydrologic Determinants of Climate Change Impacts on Regulated Water Resources Systems

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of climate change on water availability for consumptive use for a river basin taking into account the regulation capacity of its water supply systems and a set of management standards (restrictions, demands, reliability). A specific sensitivity index to climate change defined by the relation between the unitary variation of water availability and the unitary variation of the average annual inflow is studied. The analysis is conducted by constructing climate projections taking into consideration changes only in mean annual streamflow and changes in both the mean and the coefficient of variation of the annual streamflow. The study area includes 567 basins which cover practically the entire territory of continental Spain. The results show a significant sensitivity to changes in the coefficient of variation for regulated systems.

Assessing hydrological changes in a regulated river system over the last 90 years in Rimac Basin (Peru)

“…Many research studies related to hydrologic alterations due to anthropogenic activities (Yang et al 2012;Gao et al 2012;Belmar et al 2013) or due to climate change effects (Kim et al 2011;Lee et al 2014;Mittal et al 2014;González-Zeas et al 2015), and considering both effects over streamflow trends (Abeysingha et al 2016) have been currently published in different countries. The main results found were the following: Kim et al (2011) analyzed alterations in flow regime of Han River in South Korea, as a consequence of climate change whose results showed that climate change would increase the flow variability, with major surface runoff at the end of the summer, resulting from an increase in precipitation during that season.…”

“…The main results found were the following: Kim et al (2011) analyzed alterations in flow regime of Han River in South Korea, as a consequence of climate change whose results showed that climate change would increase the flow variability, with major surface runoff at the end of the summer, resulting from an increase in precipitation during that season. Mittal et al (2014) concluded that the flow regime change resulting from the construction of reservoirs would increase due to the climate change effects (precipitation decrease, temperature increase, and extreme events intensification) and González-Zeas et al (2015) predicted a significant decrease in the water availability due to reduction of water inflows in the Spanish basin under climate change scenarios. On the other hand, the research of Gao et al (2012), which compared the results of the annual and seasonal Eco-flow to those corresponding to Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA), concluded that the combination of both methods provides an efficient measure of the change in flow regime of the Yangtze River in China.…”

Exploring the Role of Reservoir Storage in Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in Southern Europe

“…Therefore, we chose to combine model results obtained under two sets of emission scenarios, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), in order to increase the size of the ensemble. Current and future runoff scenarios were compiled from three previous studies that include Southern Europe [39][40][41]. These studies were based on results from different climate models developed over the last 15 years under two sets of emission scenarios: SRES and RCP.…”

“…The first set of scenarios was taken from the output of regional climate models from the PRUDENCE project [10]. The study by González-Zeas et al [39] was based on the projections of surface runoff made by eight RCMs at 50 km resolution nested in a single global model, referred to as HadAM3H, in emission scenarios A2 and B2. They analyzed current and future (2070-2100) time slices.…”

El impacto de los caudales medioambientales en la satisfacción de la demanda de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático

“…Esta información permite la determinación de los valores de y CV. Los modelos climáticos del PRUDENCE han sido utilizados en diferentes puntos de Europa [28,[43][44][45][46] siendo el GKSS y el SMHI los más representativos del área de España en escenarios de control [47]. Considerando la gran variabilidad de los resultados de los modelos climáticos, es necesario considerar un conjunto de estos, de tal manera que se tome en cuenta la incertidumbre asociada a dichos modelos.…”