Hydrologic impacts of climate change in relation to Ontario’s source water protection planning program

Livingston, Taylor; McBean, Edward A.; Marchildon, Mason; Gharabaghi, Bahram

doi:10.1139/cjce-2019-0649

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Downscaling of the CMIP5 GCMs was performed as outlined by Brekke et al (2013) using the Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method, which is a combination of 1) a bias correction technique using the quantile maps and 2) a spatial disaggregation of temperature and precipitation from the GCM grid resolution to 1/8 °grid resolution (Brekke et al, 2013). Downscaled, bias-corrected GCM data have been previously used for climate change impacts studies as well as for watershed level studies (Navarro-Racines et al, 2020;Livingston et al, 2021). Despite this there are limitations in using GCM data to project future streamflow.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the McKenzie Creek watershed in the Great Lakes region

Deen

Arain

Champagne

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Introduction: This study explored streamflow dynamics of the McKenzie Creek watershed in Southern Ontario, Canada under a changing climate. The Creek is located in the southern portion of the Grand River watershed in the Great Lakes region and is an important water and ecosystem service provider for the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve, the largest (by population) Indigenous community in Canada and the fourth largest in North America.Methods: The Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) was used to simulate streamflow from 1951 to 2020 using observed gridded meteorological data from Natural Resources Canada (NRCANmet) and in situ data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Downscaled data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate warming scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to run GSFLOW for the historic (1951–2020) and projected (2021–2099) period.Results: Results suggested that streamflow in the McKenzie Creek will be significantly impacted by climate change in winter months when streamflow is projected to increase due to higher temperatures causing early melting of snowpack and increasing winter precipitation. Consequently, spring streamflow is expected to decrease and little or no change in streamflow in the summer and autumn. These changes in streamflow dynamics may lead to more flooding incidents in the winter, while at the same time, the region may face reduced water availability or dry conditions in late spring and summer due to warm temperatures.Discussion: This study provides important information about streamflow and hydrologic dynamics of this watershed that will help managers and planners to better manage water resources and be prepared to deal with climate change and its impacts on water availability and security not only for the Six Nations area but also for Southern Ontario which houses one-third of Canada’s population.

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Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the McKenzie Creek watershed in the Great Lakes region

Deen

Arain

Champagne

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Hydrologic droughts, even for short periods, can have a dire impact on the population and livelihood. Climate change, including variations of precipitation and streamflow, is real and undeniable [25][26][27][28]. Since the agricultural lands are located in the mid and lower elevations, the effects of reductions in flow during hydrologic drought are substantial.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Large Dams in a Transboundary Drought Management Co-Operation Framework—Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

Taraky

McBean

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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Hydrologic drought is a frequent phenomenon in the transboundary Kabul River Basin (KRB), the vital resource shared between the two nations of Afghanistan and Pakistan. While the KRB has vast water resources, these resources are subject to extreme hydrologic events and, as a result, are not adequately managed to deal with the stress during drought conditions in the transboundary setting with no formal agreement or treaty. Rapid population growth and increases in agricultural land will require balanced water distribution to meet the array of needs. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to evaluate distribution options for flow frequencies under existing and proposed large dams in the headwaters of the KRB. The calibrated SWAT streamflow results are employed for statistical analyses of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Annual Cumulative Deficit Volume (ACDV) to investigate hydrologic drought time series and identify the role of proposed dams to be used for drought mitigation. Based on the SSI, proposed dams can provide additional storage that will partially address hydrologic droughts in the future. At the same time, restrictions on agricultural land expansion and water intakes are other measures to facilitate balanced water resource availability. This study discusses the intricacies of transboundary conflict and cooperation, water rights, and drought risk management; as well, recommendations for a KRB transboundary Drought Task Force (DTF) between Afghanistan and Pakistan are provided, to develop a science-based policy for using the stored waters in large dams for drought relief, fairly and transparency.

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Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Patterns in the Yeh Embang Watershed

Eryani

Jayantari

Amir

2023

Preprint

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Climate change directly impacts rainfall trends in many parts of the world. This research aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns in the Yeh Embang watershed by examining the changes in rainfall patterns in the Yeh Embang watershed. This analysis can be used as a guide when determining how to manage water resources sustainably in the watershed. Changes in rainfall patterns are analyzed, and the relationship with climate change is seen after they are classified into three periods. According to the analysis, it can be seen that climate change occurred from 2005–2009 to 2010–2014 and from 2010–2014 to 2015–2019. In the last five years, there has been an increase in rainfall, temperature, and wind speed. With increased rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, there is a potential for increased hydrological hazards, such as flooding during the rainy season and drought during the dry season.

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Hydrologic impacts of climate change in relation to Ontario’s source water protection planning program

Cited by 3 publications

References 41 publications

Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the McKenzie Creek watershed in the Great Lakes region

Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the McKenzie Creek watershed in the Great Lakes region

The Role of Large Dams in a Transboundary Drought Management Co-Operation Framework—Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Patterns in the Yeh Embang Watershed

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