The Role of Large Dams in a Transboundary Drought Management Co-Operation Framework—Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

Abstract

Hydrologic drought is a frequent phenomenon in the transboundary Kabul River Basin (KRB), the vital resource shared between the two nations of Afghanistan and Pakistan. While the KRB has vast water resources, these resources are subject to extreme hydrologic events and, as a result, are not adequately managed to deal with the stress during drought conditions in the transboundary setting with no formal agreement or treaty. Rapid population growth and increases in agricultural land will require balanced water distribution to meet the array of needs. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to evaluate distribution options for flow frequencies under existing and proposed large dams in the headwaters of the KRB. The calibrated SWAT streamflow results are employed for statistical analyses of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Annual Cumulative Deficit Volume (ACDV) to investigate hydrologic drought time series and identify the role of proposed dams to be used for drought mitigation. Based on the SSI, proposed dams can provide additional storage that will partially address hydrologic droughts in the future. At the same time, restrictions on agricultural land expansion and water intakes are other measures to facilitate balanced water resource availability. This study discusses the intricacies of transboundary conflict and cooperation, water rights, and drought risk management; as well, recommendations for a KRB transboundary Drought Task Force (DTF) between Afghanistan and Pakistan are provided, to develop a science-based policy for using the stored waters in large dams for drought relief, fairly and transparency.

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

“…The Kabul River has experienced intensive human‐induced environmental changes in the last 40‐years (Ahmadullah & Dongshik, 2015), and new dams are planned to be built (Yousaf, 2017). Development in both the Afghanistan's and Pakistan's sides of the river, such as dam construction and increase in built‐up and cultivated areas, may worsen transboundary water conflicts (Akhtar & Iqbal, 2017; Atef et al., 2019; Taraky et al., 2021).…”

Integrated Geophysical and Geotechnical Approaches for Evaluating Dam Seepage in Lesser Himalayan Region of Pakistan

“…The aquifer is characterized by high groundwater permeability due to fracturing occurs at variable depths. The tube wells drilled in the limestone produced ample amounts of groundwater for domestic usage [31]. Generally, in this region, the direction of surface water and groundwater flow is from northwest to southeast direction.…”

“…Generally, in this region, the direction of surface water and groundwater flow is from northwest to southeast direction. The aquifer is recharged from precipitation and perennial streams from the surrounding hilltops [31].…”

Tree-Ring Evidence of Increasing Drought Risks over the Past Five Centuries amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)

“…The Kabul River has experienced intensive human-induced environmental changes in the last 40-years (Ahmadullah & Dongshik, 2015), and new dams are planned to be built (Yousaf, 2017). Development in both the Afghan and Pakistani sides of the river, such as dam construction and increase in built-up and cultivated areas, may worsen transboundary water conflicts (Akhtar & Iqbal, 2017;Atef et al, 2019;Taraky et al, 2021).…”