Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems Around the Globe

Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, T. S.; Brown, James Dean; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Lavers, David A.; Berthet, Lionel; Bressand, F.; Cloke, Hannah; Cranston, Michael; Daňhelka, Jan; Demargne, Julie; Demuth, N.; Saint-Aubin, C. de; Feikema, Paul; Fresch, M. A.; Garçon, Rémy; Gelfan, Alexander; He, Yi; Hu, Ya; Janet, Bruno; Jurdy, N.; Javelle, Pierre; Kuchment, L. S.; Laborda, Y.; Langsholt, Elin; Lay, Matthieu Le; Li, Z. J.; Mannessiez, F.; Marchandise, Arthur; Marty, Renaud; Meißner, Dennis; Manful, Desmond; Organde, Didier; Pourret, Vivien; Rademacher, S.; Ramos, Maria‐Helena; Reinbold, D.; Tibaldi, S.; Silvano, P.; Salamon, Peter; Shin, Daehyok; Sorbet, C.; Sprokkereef, Eric; Thiemig, Vera; Tuteja, Narendra; Andel, Schalk Jan van; Verkade, Jan; Vehviläinen, Bertel; Vogelbacher, A.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Zappa, Massimiliano; Zwan, R.E. Van der; Pozo, Jutta Thielen-del

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_47

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Complementary advances have also been made in hydrologic model development and parameter estimation, which represent further critical challenges (Clark et al, ). This progress has enabled a number of countries to implement operational ensemble flood forecasting systems (Addor et al, ; Pappenberger et al, , and references therein; Emerton et al, , and references therein), even if these still generally run in parallel to their legacy deterministic flood forecasting systems. There are by now many clear operational examples of ensemble forecasts that are used to support decision‐making, with many examples to choose from, such as the New York City Department of Environmental Protection's Operations Support Tool, a state‐of‐the‐art decision support system for the city's water supply system (NASEM (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine), ), in the Sonoma County Water Authority Lake Mendocino system operations (Delaney et al, ), for navigation scheduling operations in Germany (Hemri & Klein, ; Meißner et al, ; Meißner & Klein, ), and in many private sector operations, particularly those related to hydropower.…”

Section: Current Challenges and Future Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of the flood forecasting approaches, however, provide a deterministic forecast, that is, a single forecast scenario of the future state, with little or no defensible estimate of the uncertainty in the forecast. Over the past 2–3 decades, meteorological NWP has moved from deterministic forecasting to probabilistic forecasting using ensemble prediction systems (EPS), and in the past decade, ensemble forecasting has also become increasingly available for hydrometeorological flood forecasting purposes across the globe (Emerton et al, ; Pappenberger et al, ). Ensemble flood forecasts can provide an indication of the potential of upcoming extreme events, and the risk of damages associated with them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

et al. 2020

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Ensemble flood forecasting has gained significant momentum over the past decade due to the growth of ensemble numerical weather and climate prediction, expansion in high performance computing, growing interest in shifting from deterministic to risk-based decision-making that accounts for forecast uncertainty, and the efforts of communities such as the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), which focuses on advancing relevant ensemble forecasting capabilities and fostering its adoption. With this shift, comes the need to understand the current state of ensemble flood forecasting, in order to provide insights into current capabilities and areas for improvement, thus identifying future research opportunities to allow for better allocation of research resources. In this article, we provide an overview of current research activities in ensemble flood forecasting and discuss knowledge gaps and future research opportunities, based on a review of 70 papers focusing on various aspects of ensemble flood forecasting around the globe. Future research directions include opportunities to improve technical aspects of ensemble flood forecasting, such as data assimilation techniques and methods to account for more sources of uncertainty, and developing ensemble forecasts for more variables, for example, flood inundation, by applying techniques such as machine learning. Further to this, we conclude that there is a need to not only improve technical aspects of flood forecasting, but also to bridge the gap between scientific research and hydrometeorological model development, and real-world flood management using probabilistic ensemble forecasts, especially through effective communication.

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Section: Current Challenges and Future Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

et al. 2020

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“…Since the inland waterway navigation is most of the time dependent on long-term investments and long-term management and the related infrastructure and money cannot be easily relocated, it is imperative to forecast low flows so that the shipping companies are aware of navigation restrictions and have the opportunity to provide alternative means of transport. Currently, there are a large number of drought warning systems available at a global scale 8 , but these systems are providing monthly/seasonal forecasts based either on meteorological drought indices (e.g. Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index and/or Palmer Drought Severity Index) or agricultural drought-related indices (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

Ionita

Nagavciuc

2020

Sci Rep

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Over the past decades, Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy. Low flow periods have a direct impact on the environment, on the inland waterway navigation, on the hydropower production as well as on the sediment management, among others. Similar to floods, low flows are naturally occurring phenomena which can significantly hinder different uses and functions of the rivers and impact the aquatic system and the water quality. Moreover, it is projected that, in the future, climate change might lead to drier summers over the european region and therefore to more frequent and severe low flow periods. The results presented here show that the summer 2018 low flow situation, over the Rhine and Elbe Rivers basin, could have been predicted up to two seasons ahead by using previous months' sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, mean air temperature and soil moisture. the lagged relationship between the predictand (e.g. seasonal streamflow) and the climate and oceanic predictors varies between 1 month (e.g. precipitation) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Taking into account that all predictors are available in realtime, the forecast scheme can be used to provide early warnings for the upcoming low flow situations, thus offering the possibility for better management of the water resources. Drought is among the costliest and damaging disasters in the world and is a naturally occurring phenomenon that can affect large land areas and can prevail over extended periods (e.g. several months up to a few years). Over the last two decades, the European region has witnessed a series of long-lasting dry and hot summers (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018, among others) 1-3. For example, the year 2018 over the central part of Europe, especially Germany, was extraordinarily hot and dry. For Germany, the period April-July 2018 was the warmest since 1,880 and different meteorological stations have reached all-time maximum temperature records. This situation was also exacerbated by a rainfall deficit since February 2018. Overall, in Europe, the monetary losses caused by hydrological and meteorological extremes, over the period 1980-2017, amounted to ~ 453 billion Euro 4. Prolonged dry periods, such as the ones observed in the last decades (e.g. 2003, 2015, and 2018) have emphasized the degree of vulnerability of society to this natural hazard and alerted different governmental agencies and stakeholders regarding the damaging effects drought can have on the economy and society 5,6. Moreover, the IPCC fifth assessment report 7 concludes that the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (e.g. droughts, floods, heatwaves, compound events) will increase globally in the future and large areas of the European continent will be exposed to increased drought risk and possibly to more frequent and long-lasting low flow periods. Prolonged low flow periods may result in several types of issues for the soc...

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“…The subsystem is implemented based on WEB and GIS technologies, which allows integration and visualization in a single information environment (the Internet) of all output products. Interaction with users is carried out using a WEB application; the functionality of application is developed taking into account users' requirements [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

et al. 2021

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This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of the forecast release and the five previous days. Such forecast techniques were developed for more than 2700 stream gauging stations across Russia. Forecast verification has shown that this method can be successfully applied to large rivers with a smooth shape of hydrographs, while for small mountain catchments, the accuracy of the method tends to be lower. The method has been implemented into real-time continuous operations in the Hydrometcentre of Russia. In the territory of Russia, 18 regions have been identified with a single dependency of the maximum lead time of good forecasts on the area and average slope of the catchment surface for different catchments of each region; the possibilities of forecasting river streamflow by the method of hydrograph extrapolation are approximately estimated. The proposed method can be considered as a first approximation while solving the problem of forecasting river flow in conditions of a lack of meteorological information or when it is necessary to quickly develop a forecasting system for a large number of catchments.

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Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems Around the Globe

Cited by 8 publications

References 60 publications

Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

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