Hydrological Model for Sustainable Development in the Aral Sea Region

Abstract

Possible scenarios of the Aral Sea crisis solution are discussed, and a new scenario is proposed. Previous scenarios have provided for the transfer of water from Siberian Rivers to Central Asia and the restriction of unsustainable expansion of irrigation in this region. The scenario proposed in this paper is partly based on the use of Caspian water evaporators located on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Engineering realization of this scenario needs only the construction of the drainage system for the runoff of Caspian waters to the natural evaporators, between which Kara-Bogaz-Gol is the functioning evaporator. This paper shows that realization of this scenario allows the rescue of the Aral Sea and normalization of the water balance in Central Asia. Under this, as the simulation modeling results show, there exist different versions of the scenario depending on the area of evaporators and restrictions for the runoff of Amu Darya and Syr Darya waters to the irrigation systems. Calculation results show that the Aral Sea could be restored within 90–240 years depending on the scenario versions. With only Kara-Bogaz-Gol as the evaporator, the Aral Sea cannot be restored within a century. Additionally, if the anthropogenic runoff of river waters was decreased by 10 percent, the Aral Sea would be restored over about 90 years. Possible versions of the recovery scenario are discussed and assessed.

Monitoring and Assessment of the Oasis Ecological Resilience Improved by Rational Water Dispatching Using Multiple Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin, Silk Road

“…The lack of an effective agreement among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan on the allocation of water resources from these two river basins has exacerbated the ecological crisis of the Aral Sea basin. Trans-boundary coordination and cooperation among the five Central Asian countries is needed to optimize the water utilization among different areas in the Aral Sea basin [68].…”

Nexus between Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Economic Development, Water, and Agriculture in Aral Sea Basin: Empirical Assessment

“…Water intake, water stress, and land degradation in downstream countries were stronger than those in the upstream countries, particularly in Karakalpakstan, Tashauz, and Karakum [42]. Thus, in the downstream regions, cropping intensity and cotton yield were significantly impacted by the water intake [38]. Nonetheless, the growth of cash crop cultivation has resulted in an unsustainable rise in water consumption for irrigation due to the cotton plants' high water requirements in the dry climate of the Aral Sea basin [43].…”

“…International organizations and funding agencies ought to serve as facilitators and mediators [32]. A scenario put forth is based in part on the utilization of Caspian water evaporators, which are situated on the Caspian Sea's eastern coast and of which Kara-Bogaz-Gol is thought to be the only operational evaporator [38]. It demonstrates that if this scenario comes to pass, the Aral Sea can be saved and Central Asia's water balance can return to normal [32].…”

Geospatial quantitative analysis of the Aral Sea Shoreline changes using RS and GIS techniques

“…Previous studies have focused primarily on the lake area change, water balance, hydrological model of the Aral Sea based on quantitative analysis of meteorological data, hydrological data, and satellite image data (Bai et al 2011;Izhitskiy et al 2016;Krapivin et al 2019;Sun and Ma 2019;Massakbayeva et al 2020;Yang et al 2020;. Remote sensing technology has paved the way for large-scale geospatial analysis and dynamic environmental monitoring of the Aral Sea surfaces water area (Berdimbetov et al 2021).…”