Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin - Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Dile, Yihun T.; Berndtsson, Ronny; Setegn, Shimelis Gebriye

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079296

Cited by 163 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Generally, this result implies that there is an increase in runoff on average of 21 and 23% at Gilgel Abbay and 29.5 and 25% at Gumara watersheds with A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. Our results are comparable with the findings of Dile et al (2013).…”

Section: Runoffsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Many studies have focused on the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology including changes in precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, stream flow, and soil moisture (Setegn et al 2011;Dile et al 2013;Tung et al 2014;Musau et al 2015). Variations in precipitation have direct effects on runoff, groundwater storage, frequency and intensity of floods, soil moisture, water supplies for irrigation, and hydroelectric power generation (Li et al 2009;Tshimanga and Hughes 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Ayele¹,

Li²,

Tung³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Climate change and variability have significant influences on hydrological cycles and the availability of water in the Horn of Africa. Projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs) in association with high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios were adopted in this study from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 2020 -2039 to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Gilgel Abbay and Gumara watershed hydrology, the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were screened in accordance with baseline climate statistics of study areas. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive the General Water Loading Function (GWLF) hydrological model for simulating runoffs. Projected changes in temperature differences and precipitation ratios relative to the baseline were analyzed to explain the variations in evapotranspiration and the influences on runoff. Despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among GCMs, increasing runoff in both wet and dry seasons was observed for both watersheds, attributable mainly to the increase in precipitation projected by most GCMs. In contrast to the great increases in runoff, variations in evapotranspiration are less significant. The projected runoff in both watersheds implies increased potential for promoting agricultural irrigation in the dry season. Furthermore, it would allow greater inflow to Lake Tana, the largest contributor to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Therefore, concerned local, state, and federal government organizations shall be prepared to harness opportunities from the projected increase in runoff.

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Section: Runoffsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Ayele¹,

Li²,

Tung³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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“…While maximum temperature did not show a consistent bias, in this case, bias could be corrected with histogram matching, gamma or power transformation functions among others [48,[57][58][59]. The observed rainfall amounts were not reasonably captured by either of the downscaled climate scenarios because of the complex rainfall formation process [20]. Moreover, the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM models makes it difficult to adequately capture the observed rainfall pattern [19,60].…”

Section: Downscaled Precipitation Maximum and Minimum Temperature Fomentioning

confidence: 84%

“…However, implementation of such strategies requires a thorough assessment of the impact of climate change on streamflow that is highly sensitive to climate, especially to changes in precipitation, snow regime and evapotranspiration [17,18]. Climate change scenarios from either General Circulation Models (GCMs) or simple analog models are frequently used to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change [19][20][21][22]. Since the impact of climate change can be significantly variable in different regions, it is important to conduct such study at critical agro-ecological regions to develop and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Worqlul

Taddele

Ayana

et al. 2018

Water

Self Cite

100

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This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period . The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons: 2020-2045, 2045-2070 and 2070-2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6 • C and 2.4 • C, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, although trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern, such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.

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“…Percentage change in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation for the period 2010-2099 generally increasing during the Kiremit (wet season=June-September) for the long-term future and also indicate a corresponding increase in precipitation for the Belg (less rainy season=February-May) for 2050s and 2080s [31].…”

Section: Future Climate Projection Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Simulation of Hydro Climatological Impacts Caused by Climate Change: The Case of Hare Watershed, Southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Yisehak¹

2017

Hydrol Current Res

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Ethiopia will be more vulnerable to climate change. Because of the less flexibility to adjust the economic structure and being largely dependent on agriculture, the impact of climate change has far reaching implication in Ethiopia. Simulation models of watershed hydrology and water quality are extensively used for water resources planning and management. The study aims to Simulate Hydro Climatological impacts caused by Climate Change: the case of Hare Watershed, Southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia. In the study the daily data values of rainfall and discharge for the current period of 1980-2006 were used. Historical Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) data of precipitation and temperature were used to extract raw climate variables. The raw RCPs data were corrected using a bias correction method. The downscaled climate data such as, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was used for the future period assessment. Soil water assessment tool (SWAT) models were used to Simulate Hydro Climatological impacts caused by Climate Change. Calibration and validation of the model output were performed by comparing 8.0, and 13.9% at 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline period for RCP4.5 scenario, whereas for RCP8.5 scenario, it will be expected to increase by 7.3, 13.4, and 15.4% for 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s, respectively. The model simulations considered only future climate change scenarios assuming all spatial data constant. But change in land use scenarios other climate variables will also contribute some impacts on future stream flow.

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Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin - Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Cited by 163 publications

References 40 publications

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Simulation of Hydro Climatological Impacts Caused by Climate Change: The Case of Hare Watershed, Southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia

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