Hydropower Impacts on Electrical System Production Costs in the Southwest United States

Bain, Dominique; Acker, Thomas L.

doi:10.3390/en11020368

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Electricity demand fluctuates constantly, driven in large part by changes in heating and cooling demands, which are themselves driven by weather (air temperatures, wind speeds, and humidity) (Bain & Acker, 2018). Demand must be balanced in real‐time using installed generating capacity from a mix of technologies, many of which are influenced by hydrometeorological conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

et al. 2022

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Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

et al. 2022

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“…Hydropower ought to have higher spare capacity since calculating the appropriate reserve margin should consider the risks of droughts, which have been frequent. It is essential to have the spare capacity to deal with drought ( Bain and Acker, 2018 ). The metric for thermal spare capacity is more significant than hydropower and geothermal spare capacities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of diversity, reserve margin and system structure on retail electricity tariffs in Kenya

Ang’u

Muthama

Oludhe

et al. 2020

Heliyon

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Electricity bills in Kenya have been an issue of concern to electricity consumers in the recent past. Highly volatile oil prices and unprecedented weather fluctuations have acted as significant shocks for electricity generation, influencing electricity pricing. This study sought to investigate the contribution of diversity, spare capacity, and system structure as metrics in determining energy resilience. We contend that electricity prices represent the underlying fleet structure's ability to adjust to change and, therefore, can be used to predict energy resilience. Resilience metrics were determined using electricity generation data, electricity sales, electricity installed capacities, and electricity imports, while electricity prices represented the response variable. A regression model was fitted between the response variable and resilience metrics. Diversity, spare capacity, and import metrics play a significant role in predicting electricity prices. However, the diversity metric's role depends on the portfolio mix and requires further comparative empirical evidence.

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“…If it were to stay at this elevation for an entire year, this would amount to a decrease of 36% of the average annual electricity generation from 2001 to 2016. Reduced water availability has previously been shown by Bain and Acker (2018) to result in higher operating costs, and higher prices of energy for hydroelectricity in the Colorado River Basin.…”

Section: Drought Scenariomentioning

confidence: 98%

“…To do this, requires 2.8 million MWH of energy, which is supplied from a coal plant: Navajo Generating Station in Page, AZ (Kleiman, 2016;Navajo Generating Station). While this plant is not in the study area, it is considered a regional connection, and is important to consider given the large supply of energy it provides to the study area (Bain and Acker, 2018) as the eighth-largest plant in the United States (Talbot et al, 2003).…”

Section: Energy-watermentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints to implementing the food-energy-water nexus concept: Governance in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Huckleberry

Potts

2019

Environmental Science & Policy

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The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus concept has emerged as a powerful approach to address the social and environmental challenges created by land and climate change. We present an analysis of the impact of the governance structure of the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) on the implementation of the FEW nexus concept. Specifically, we quantified the linkages between food, energy, and water systems and then used two different future scenarios: (1) drought and (2) increased demand for alfalfa to look for the emergence of resource scarcity and/or vulnerabilities. Our results indicate that fluctuations in food production are not controlled by water availability but by the governance structure. Additionally, there is proportionally more water used for food than energy, and more energy used to move water to cities than water for agricultural production. Analysis of the production scenarios indicate tipping points of food, energy, and water resources based on climatic and consumptive trends that are not yet addressed by the rigid water laws in the LCRB. These results highlight the need for resource governance to play a strong formative role in the analysis and implementation of FEW nexus management strategies.

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Hydropower Impacts on Electrical System Production Costs in the Southwest United States

Cited by 18 publications

References 15 publications

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

The role of diversity, reserve margin and system structure on retail electricity tariffs in Kenya

Constraints to implementing the food-energy-water nexus concept: Governance in the Lower Colorado River Basin

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