Hydropower: Projections in a changing climate and impacts by this "clean" source

Naranjo-Silva, Sebastian; Castillo, J.

doi:10.33210/ca.v10i2.363

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…These lead times include planning, site construction, and commissioning. The projects are large and complex, involving significant civil engineering changes, lengthy site surveys, inflow data collection, environmental assessments, and obtaining any permits required to move forward with the project [51,52]. Therefore, they are often not the best investment decision, as shown by the global efficiency reductions in Table A1.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

et al. 2023

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Currently, hydropower is the principal renewable energy source; however, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers, which produce uncertainty with regard to hydroelectric generation. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the climate change projections for the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying scenarios according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study examined the period from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, determined the tendency, defined a database year, and then projected the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology used time-series statistics for Ecuador’s hydropower inflow to calculate the deviation over recent years and develop a model to simulate future power generation. The results showed that hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through to 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios showed a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% through to 2050, indicating that the opportunities for hydroelectric production in the face of climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of reductions in hydropower generation represent a sensitive issue, especially knowing that, in 2020, 87% of the energy grid in the country depended on hydroelectric production.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

et al. 2023

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“…These lead times include allowing, site construction, and commissioning. The projects are large and complex, involving significant changes to civil engineering, lengthy site surveys, inflow data collection, environmental assessments, and any permits required to move forward with the project [51], [52]. Therefore, they are often not the best investment decision, as shown by the global efficiency reductions in Table 4.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Naranjo-Silva¹,

Punina-Guerrero²,

Rivera-González³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Nowadays, hydropower is the principal renewable; however, climate change increases extreme events such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers that produce uncertainty in hydroelectric generation. Thus, this document aims to analyze the climate change projections in the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying the scenarios ac-cording to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study period starts from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, collects the tendency, defines a database year, and then projects the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology uses a statistic on Ecuador's hydropower obtained inflow time series to calculate the deviation over the last years and develop a model to simulate future generation. The results show that the hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios show a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% to 2050, concluding that the oppor-tunities for hydroelectric production facing climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of hydropower plants represent a sensitive issue of their re-ductions, especially knowing that the country had an energy grid in 2020 that depended on 87% of hydroelectric production.

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“…Still, the renewables such as hydropower, wind, and solar with respect to time had a conservative growth, demonstrating the feasibly of developing renewable projects around the world. There has been considerable progress in hydropower since it first became a source of industrial power in the past 55 years [7,8].…”

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confidence: 99%

Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

Naranjo-Silva

Punina-Guerrero

Barros-Enriquez

et al. 2023

IJEE

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The present manuscript aims to identify the advantages and consequences of hydropower development, showing a view of trends finding the status and situation in Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador. This study uses a non-experimental methodology based on a comprehensive literature review of relevant papers retrieved from 41 selected papers that are summarized covering different application areas in these selected countries. In addition, the non-experimental methodology is guided by a perspective design sequential with a qualitative phase defining two indicators that do a relation between the people and the installed capacity in megawatts (MW) and energy production in gigawatts hour (GWh). The results show Colombia has the main installed capacity and energy generation per capita, followed by Ecuador, and finally, Brazil. According to the models and studies, the general hydropower potential of Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador decreases as time goes on because this renewable energy affects the water quality, interacting deeply with the surrounding environment. However, in South American countries only 34% of hydropower potential has developed.

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Hydropower: Projections in a changing climate and impacts by this "clean" source

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Hydropower Development in Three South American Countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador

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