"I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability

Abstract

We examined a phenomenon related to hindsight bias, specifically, retrospective judgements about the foreseeability of an outcome. We predicted that negative, self-relevant outcomes would be judged as less foreseeable by the recipient of the outcome than by others, unlike either positive outcomes or outcomes that are not self-relevant. In the context of a "stock market decision-making game", the hypothetical stock selected by one of two players showed an extreme increase or decrease. As predicted, the player who received an extreme negative outcome reported that this outcome was less foreseeable than did the opponent and an observer, for whom the outcome was less self-relevant. For no other kind of outcome was there a difference between the recipient of an outcome, the opponent, and the observer. The findings have several implications, including the possibility that hindsight bias should be considered as a special case of retrospective foreseeability.

The effects of disappointment on hindsight bias for real‐world outcomes

“…The defensive processing approach argues that we can reduce our sense of culpability by denying the foreseeability of a negative event (Mark et al, 2003). Events that are not under one's control should not require defensive processing because they do not threaten the self.…”

Controllability and hindsight components: Understanding opposite hindsight biases for self-relevant negative event outcomes

“…Instead of believing in hindsight that they knew this all along, as a strictly cognitive view of hindsight bias would hold (unless the outcome is surprising-in which case, hindsight bias can be attenuated or even reversed; see Müller & Stahlberg, 2007, for an overview), quite a number of studies have shown that hindsight is reduced and often eliminated under such conditions (Louie, 1999(Louie, , 2005Louie, Curren, & Harich, 2000;Mark, Boburka, Eyssell, Cohen, & Mellor, 2003;Mark & Mellor, 1991;Pezzo & Beckstead, 2008). Importantly, this holds even if any possibly confounding influence of surprise is controlled for (Louie, 1999).…”

“…The key idea is that a negative event outcome reflects unfavorably on the self only if the person has some responsibility for it, which presupposes controllability. For instance, Mark et al (2003), comparing their own results with those of Tykocinski and colleagues, ar-making studies that showed a reduction or elimination of hindsight bias, the dependent measures are obvious measures of foreseeability and require no further comment (Louie, 1999;Mark et al, 2003;Mark & Mellor, 1991). In three others (Louie, 2005;Louie et al, 2000;Pezzo & Beckstead, 2008), the participants were asked (1) to make hindsight predictions of the outcome or (2) to recall predictions that they had actually made.…”

“…Why, if they knew all along what would happen, would they have made such a bad decision in the first place? Hence, claiming that they could not foresee the negative outcome protects them from being regarded as frivolous or outright stupid by others or, in fact, themselves (Louie, 1999(Louie, , 2005Louie et al, 2000;Mark et al, 2003;Mark & Mellor, 1991).…”

“…Measure/Question Wording Louie (1999) "I would have predicted that the value would definitely decrease/increase" (direct measure of foreseeability) Louie (2005) Hindsight postdictions of outcome (indirectly related to foreseeability) Louie, Curren, & Harich (2000) Recall of foresight likelihood ratings of outcome (indirectly related to foreseeability) Mark, Boburka, Eyssell, Cohen, & Mellor (2003) Three-item scale: (1) "I was surprised by the performance of this stock" [reverse coded]; (2) "I could foresee what this stock was going to do"; (3) "It was obvious after the first four-day trading period that this stock was going to perform as it did" (direct measure of foreseeability) Mark & Mellor (1991) Scaled response alternatives: (1) "I'm not sure I ever saw it coming"; (2) "I wasn't sure, but suspected it was coming"; (3) "I saw it coming all the way" (direct measure of foreseeability) Pezzo & Beckstead (2008) Recall of foresight likelihood ratings of several outcomes (indirectly related to foreseeability) Sanna & Chang (2003) Experiment 1: inevitability ratings-"what would you have estimated the inevitability that the overall outcome would ultimately turn out to be a failure?" (direct measure of inevitability) Experiment 2: probability ratings-"what would you have thought the probability of performing poorly would be?"…”