IStillSuck at Everything: The Generality of Failure and Future Arrest

Towards more accurate classification of risk of arrest among offenders on community supervision: An application of machine learning versus logistic regression

“…Although age, race, marital status, income and education were significantly associated with rearrest among probationers and parolees, their effects were not quite as salient across approaches compared to behavioural considerations such as drug dependence, drug selling, stealing, attacking others, and binge drinking. The robust association of versatile, ongoing forms of antisocial behaviour and continued justice system contact is also consistent with general criminological models of antisocial behaviour (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Mowen et al., 2021).…”

“…Thus, even with variables that are known to predict arrest, there is a considerable amount of imprecision in classifying which correctional clients will get arrested. In a statistical sense, this is similar to having probationers or parolees on one's caseload with very similar, even identical risk profiles, but some fare well while others do not as seen in practitioner-oriented research (DeLisi et al, 2021;Hochstetler et al, 2017;Mowen et al, 2021;Zettler & Medina, 2020).…”

Self-Perceptions of Attractiveness and Offending During Adolescence

“…While the laundry list of factors that relate to offending is too long to list here, many of the factors which are considered to be most theoretically and empirically important circulate around the importance of family ties (Hirschi, 1969), peer relationships (Gallupe et al, 2019), school factors (Na & Gottfredson, 2013), mental health and well-being (Chung et al, 2002), static traits (Hay & Forrest, 2006), sex/gender identity (Steffensmeier & Allan, 1996), and age-graded factors (Sampson & Laub, 1992). While the importance of these central criminological concepts is firmly rooted within the field, there has been an increased call for criminologists to examine a wider variety of risk, protective, and promotive factors for offending (see a discussion of “not-so-apparent risk factors” by Mowen et al, 2020). Several examples of this include research examining the linkages between deviance and “failing at life” (Pratt et al, 2016), cortisol levels (Cooke et al, 2020), and poor sleep (Mears et al, 2020).…”