<i>Research Note:</i> Re-Examining the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey

Husein, Jamal; Kara, S. Murat

doi:10.5367/te.2011.0069

Cited by 46 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Table 4 shows the results which imply a significant Granger causality from tourism to GDP, confirming the findings of other authors on European destinations (e.g. Husein and Kara, 2011; Nowak et al, 2007; Surugiu and Surugiu, 2013) and on the level of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (Lee and Chang, 2008). Furthermore, there is an equally positive relationship on urban tax levels, with higher levels of tourism seemingly supporting both commercial and income tax revenues.…”

Section: Empirical Findingssupporting

confidence: 85%

Tourism and urban economic growth: A panel analysis of German cities

Neuts

2019

Tourism Economics

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Even though cities are among the most important tourist destinations, research on tourism as a vehicle for economic growth – most often approached via the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) – has predominantly been limited to countries. This study explores the validity of the TLGH in an urban context. Panel data were collected for 89 German cities on different indicators of urban economic growth. Pedroni panel cointegration confirmed a long-term equilibrium between tourism, local business tax revenue, income tax revenue and real GDP, indicating that even for cities within a strong, developed economy, tourism contributes to wealth creation. A Panel Granger causality analysis established a one-way Granger causal relationship from tourism to local business tax and income tax and a bidirectional relationship between tourism and real GDP. This causal relationship was stronger for cities with a high to medium tourism intensity.

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Section: Empirical Findingssupporting

confidence: 85%

Tourism and urban economic growth: A panel analysis of German cities

Neuts

2019

Tourism Economics

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“…Namely, tourism development can unidirectionally promote economic growth. A large number of subsequent studies have provided evidence verifying this hypothesis [30][31][32][33][34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China

Zhang

2019

Sustainability

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To examine whether tourism can effectively stimulate economic growth following a disaster shock, we apply a panel threshold regression technique to test the threshold effect of tourism development on economic growth of the 36 Wenchuan earthquake-affected counties in 2008-2016. The empirical results using the panel fixed-effects model show that tourism significantly contributes to economic growth, supporting the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) for the disaster-affected destinations. The results of the panel threshold regression model also indicate a threshold effect of tourism development on economic growth, implying that counties with different conditions of tourism specialization and industrial structure experience different impacts on the tourism-growth nexus. Specifically, the estimated coefficients of tourism on economic growth decrease with the levels of tourism specialization and industrial structure exceeding the threshold value. Based on the Tourism Area Life Cycle theory (TALC), we further divide the 36 disaster-stricken counties into six types based on the evolution of tourism specialization: Exploration-stage type, involvement-stage type, transition-stage type, development-stage type, consolidation-stage type, and stagnation-stage type. The empirical findings and managerial implications discussed are generally applicable to policymakers seeking new ways to invigorate the economy in other disaster-affected destinations.Note: Notice of the State Council of China on printing and distributing the general plan for recovery and reconstruction after the Wenchuan Earthquake announced the 39 disaster-stricken counties of the Sichuan province that were seriously affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. They include:

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“…The results derived from the research papers have been discordant in general. There has been found evidence of causality from tourism towards economic development (Gunduz & Hatemi, ; Kaplan & Çelik, ; Zortuk, ; Husein & Kara, ; Arslanturk & Atan, ; Ertugrul & Mangir, ), of bidirectional causality (Demiroz & Ongan, ) and of absence of causality as well (Katircioglu, ). In that sense, Ozturk and Acaravci () tested the TLG hypothesis for Turkey by using two different methods: the vector error correction model and the autoregressive distributed lag model, and the results led the authors to indicate that the TLG hypothesis cannot be inferred for the Turkish economy in the long term due to a lack of cointegration between international tourism and the real GDP.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism‐led Growth Revisited for Spain: Causality, Business Cycles and Structural Breaks

Merida

Golpe

2014

Journal of Tourism Research

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This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time-series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards.

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Research Note: Re-Examining the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey

Cited by 46 publications

References 12 publications

Tourism and urban economic growth: A panel analysis of German cities

Tourism and urban economic growth: A panel analysis of German cities

Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China

Tourism‐led Growth Revisited for Spain: Causality, Business Cycles and Structural Breaks

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