Identifiability of the joint distribution of age and tumor size at detection in the presence of screening

Hanin, Leonid; Yakovlev, Andrei

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.12.004

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Heidenreich and colleagues, and Hanin and Yakovlev30 have found that there is a fundamental identifiability problem in the TSCE model which prohibits the estimation of the values of the fundamental model parameters directly from incidence or mortality data alone: the first and second mutation rates (α 1 and α 2 ); and the birth and death rates of intermediate cells (b and d). Hence, the parameter combinations A, B and C are estimated instead as functions of the four fundamental parameters, and also used in our version of the software.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The two-stage clonal expansion model in occupational cancer epidemiology: results from three cohort studies

2010

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Objectives The objective of this work was to apply the two-stage clonal expansion model, with the intention to expand the literature on epidemiological applications of the model and demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating biologically based modelling methods into the widely used retrospective cohort study. Methods The authors fitted the two-stage clonal expansion model model to three occupational cohort studies: (1) a cohort of textile workers exposed to asbestos and followed for lung cancer mortality; (2) a cohort of diatomaceous earth workers exposed to silica and also followed for lung cancer mortality; and (3) a cohort of automotive manufacturing workers exposed to straight metalworking fluid (MWF) and followed for larynx cancer incidence. The model allowed the authors to estimate exposure effects in three stages: cancer initiation (early effects), promotion or malignant transformation (late effects). Results In the first cohort, the authors found strong evidence for an early effect of asbestos on lung cancer risk. Findings from analyses of the second cohort suggested early and less evidently late effects of silica on lung cancer risk. In the MWF (third) cohort, there was only weak evidence of straight MWF exposure effects on both early and late stages. The authors also observed a late birth cohort effect on larynx cancer risk. Conclusions The findings for asbestos and silica were essentially confirmatory, supporting evidence for their early effects on lung cancer from a large body of literature. The effect of straight MWF on larynx cancer was less clear.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The two-stage clonal expansion model in occupational cancer epidemiology: results from three cohort studies

2010

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“…We proceed from the following two biologically natural assumptions; see also . Assumption Random variables W 0 and T are independent.…”

Section: Formula For the Screening Efficiency Functionalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analysis of records of more than 69,400 patients, however, demonstrates that this effect is very weak . For a more extensive discussion of the dependence between RVs W 0 and T , see . Assumption For every t ≥ 0, RVs W 1 and W 0 are conditionally independent given T = t . This is justified by thinking of spontaneous and screening‐based detection as unrelated random processes that start at the time of tumor onset and compete for tumor discovery.…”

Section: Formula For the Screening Efficiency Functionalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal screening schedules for prevention of metastatic cancer

Hanin

Павлова

2012

Statistics in Medicine

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We develop methodological, mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches to constructing schedules of cancer screening that maximize the probability that by the time of primary tumor detection it has not yet metastasized. Solving this problem is based on a comprehensive mechanistic model of cancer progression. We apply the model with realistic parameters and the screening optimization methodology to mammographic screening for breast cancer within the American female population. We uncover some general patterns of optimal screening schedules. We show that optimization of screening regimens leads to a significant reduction in the probability of detecting breast cancer that has already disseminated.

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A unifying framework for continuous tumour growth modelling of breast cancer screening data

Isheden¹,

Humphreys²

2022

Mathematical Biosciences

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Identifiability of the joint distribution of age and tumor size at detection in the presence of screening

Cited by 4 publications

References 46 publications

The two-stage clonal expansion model in occupational cancer epidemiology: results from three cohort studies

The two-stage clonal expansion model in occupational cancer epidemiology: results from three cohort studies

Optimal screening schedules for prevention of metastatic cancer

A unifying framework for continuous tumour growth modelling of breast cancer screening data

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