2020
DOI: 10.3386/w27528
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Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland

Abstract: In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, international testing efforts tended to target individuals whose symptoms and/or jobs placed them at a high presumed risk of infection. Testing regimes of this sort potentially result in a high proportion of cases going undetected. Quantifying this parameter, which we refer to as the undetected rate, is an important contribution to the analysis of the early spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We show that partial identification techniques can credibly deal with the dat… Show more

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Cited by 18 publications
(17 citation statements)
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“…Although still the new number of cases are between 10-15,000 per day, India has followed a perfect bell-shaped curve with a well-defined peak in September 2020. Several studies have pinpointed that the real number of infected people in a population are several fold higher than the reported cases (Aspelund et al, 2020; Böhning et al, 2020; Ivorra et al, 2020; Mukhopadhyay and Chakraborty, 2020; Pedersen and Meneghini, 2020; Shaman, 2020). In addition with that, a large number of asymptomatic people add another layer of complexity to it which have been seen in case of India (Chaubey, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 93%
“…Although still the new number of cases are between 10-15,000 per day, India has followed a perfect bell-shaped curve with a well-defined peak in September 2020. Several studies have pinpointed that the real number of infected people in a population are several fold higher than the reported cases (Aspelund et al, 2020; Böhning et al, 2020; Ivorra et al, 2020; Mukhopadhyay and Chakraborty, 2020; Pedersen and Meneghini, 2020; Shaman, 2020). In addition with that, a large number of asymptomatic people add another layer of complexity to it which have been seen in case of India (Chaubey, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 93%
“…The estimation of such parameters consists in minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) of the model with respect to the real data, which is defined as: where Ξ 1 = (β 0 , β, ρ, γ, θ 0 , λ,Ĩ(0),C(0)) collects the unknown parameters. Moreover, based on serological testing data [48] when searching for realistic parameters we assume that C(k) < 20(Q(k) + T (k)).…”
Section: Long-term Identification Of the Model Parametersmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…During the early stages of the pandemic, the true percentage of the population infected for eleven European countries was deduced from early estimates of the mortality rates (Flaxman et al, 2020). Moreover, Aspelund et al (2020) used Bayes arguments applied to testing data from Ireland to estimate the case detection ratio in the order of 7-11% in the beginning of the pandemic and in the order of 10-20% thereafter. The argument is based on relating the number of tests and the share of positive tests.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The major advantage of our approach is that it only relies on the assumption that the age specific COVID-19 fatality ratio, whatever it is, has not substantial changed over time. Whether this assumption is valid is currently discussed (Harris, 2020; Kip et al, 2020) and the possibility of changed fatality ratios in the second wave has been considered as well (Kenyon, 2020 and Aspelund et al, 2020). To assess the impact of this assumption on our results, we provide sensitivity analyses that demonstrate that our approach is sufficiently robust.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%