16 17 Observations of previously unrecorded non-native species in the Gulf of Cadiz (Spain), situated 18 between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, have accelerated since 1980, and 19 increased rapidly in the past five years. Four new records of decapod crustaceans have been 20 detected in this region: the African snapping shrimp Alpheus sp., the West African cleaner shrimp 21 Lysmata uncicornis, the Indo-West Pacific giant tiger prawn, Penaeus monodon, and the Atlantic 22 blue crab Callinectes sapidus. The introduction and establishment of these species into the coastal 23 waters of this region , the southernmost Atlantic coast of Spain may have been influenced by 24 recent anthropogenic alteration of habitat, particularly estuaries and salt marshes, and by climate 25 change facilitating the spread of warm water biota. 26 27 Introduction 28 29 Biological invasions may have accelerated as a consequence of expanded connectivity (Hulme et 30 al., 2017). The increase in shipping, both commercial and recreational, risks the transport of 31 ballast and biofouling assemblages (González-Ortegón et al. 2007; Cuesta et al. 2016; Galil et al. 32 2019). Climate change may enhance the establishment of introduced species, as well as the 33 poleward shift in distribution of numerous species over decades (Sorte et al. 2010; Canning-Clode 34 and Carlton 2017; Pinsky et al. 2020). The climate driven range shifting of West African marine 35 species northwards into European waters has been termed "African Creep" by Canning-Clode 36 and Carlton (2017). 37 38 Given the risk of invasion, predicting the population growth patterns of non-native species 39 (NNS) is imperative for effective management. We use NNS as an inclusive term for species 40 occurring outside of its natural range, whether it was introduced intentionally/unintentionally by 41 humans (non-indigenous species, NIS), as well as climate driven species (CDS) extending their 42 range naturally. 43 44 The Gulf of Cadiz (GoC), Spain, adjoining the Straits of Gibraltar, may be increasingly 45 vulnerable to introductions, both from the much-invaded Mediterranean Sea and through the 46 northward expansion of African biota, that is African Creep species (Cuesta et al. 2016; Canning-47 Clode and Carlton 2017; Galil et al. 2018; Guastella et al. 2019). Over the past four decades, the 48 southwestern coast of Spain has been transformed. Its four main harbours have been expanded 49 (Fremont 2007) -the port of Algeciras ranks first in Spain in container traffic volume, and second 50 among all Mediterranean ports (Acosta et al. 2007). Beaches have been reconstructed (e.g. in 51 Algeciras, Cadiz and Huelva), the Guadalquivir estuary made navigable at the cost of the adjacent 52 salt-marshes (Del Moral Ituarte 1991), and the Guadiana and the Guadalquivir dammed (Clavero 53 et al. 2004; Morais 2008). The massive coastal sprawl, changes in water-usage and dynamic flow 54 characteristics of the main rivers, in addition to climate anomalies may facilitate invasions (Duarte 55 et ...