Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

Ayala, Andrés; Dintrans, Pablo Villalobos; Elorrieta, Felipe; Castillo, Claudio; Vargas, Claudio; Maddaleno, Matilde

doi:10.3390/ijerph182111058

Cited by 29 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The analysis of hospital admissions during the study period showed two Covid-19 waves, which were observed in other healthcare centres as well; however, they shifted in time due to the spread of the pandemic and population migration [18][19][20][21]. From April to September 2020, the monthly number of Covid-19 patients admitted to the hospital was stable; however, it increased in October, reaching the first peak in November 2020 (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Analysis of Covid-19 Hospital Admissions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

et al. 2021

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The Covid-19 pandemic has a substantial impact on socioeconomic, political, demographic, and other aspects of life. Effective healthcare is, however, a primary determinant of successful fighting against Covid-19. The analysis of local healthcare indicators serves as a source for estimating pandemic magnitude and the adaptation of healthcare at a national level. In this study, the rates of Covid-19 hospital admissions to the Ivano-Frankivsk City Hospital, Ukraine, from April 2020 to May 2021 were analysed. All cases were grouped by age, sex, and the type of admission; data were analyzed monthly and seasonally. The peaks of hospital admissions were observed in November 2020 and March 2021; however, the highest mortality rates were seen from August to November 2020. The analysis of age- and sex-disaggregated Covid-19 mortality data showed the predominance of elderly males (61.9%, 66.6 ± 3.9 years) over females (38.1%, 71.8 ± 2.3 years). The ratio of hospital admissions was unstable: the percentage of emergency, GP-referred and self-referred admissions was similar from April to May 2020; however, GP-referred admissions prevailed, and the number of self-referral patients decreased twice between March and May 2021. In conclusions, the trends in hospital admissions were similar to those reported in other studies. However, the differences in time frames and socio-demographic characteristics were observed that highlights the importance of considering regional, social and geographic aspects of the population when improving the capacity of healthcare system and establishing effective preventive measures against the pandemic at the local level.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Analysis of Covid-19 Hospital Admissions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

et al. 2021

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“…After being stripped of personal identifying details, all of the data were processed and cross-checked by two trained qualified health workers. Moreover, the “wave” was defined according to the average threshold (criterion 3: the average week between the end of the first wave and the start of the second wave) ( 12 ), while weekly confirmed cases in 30 as a threshold value. The “reproduction rate” [brief definition: reproduction number (R0) is the number of secondary cases which one case would produce in a completely susceptible population ( 13 )] and “stringency index” [brief definition: COVID-19: the stringency index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest)] ( 14 ) data associated with COVID-19 in Sierra Leone were extracted from the public website “Our World in Data” ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Briefly, the cycle threshold value was ≤ 37, and positive results required both ORF1ab and N gene results to be positive or for any single target positive repeat test to remain positive. Briefly, a confirmed case corresponds to a person who has a positive result of SARS-CoV-2 from a RT-PCR test, tested specimen including throat swab, nose swab, or saliva et al ( 12 , 15 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Sierra Leone From March 2020 to October 2021

Liu

Gao²,

Xue³

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a serious public health challenge the world over, has led to significant health concerns in Sierra Leone. In the present study, epidemic indices, such as the number of cases, positivity rate, reproduction rate (R0), case fatality rate (CFR), age, and sex, were used to characterize the epidemiological trends of COVID-19. As of October 31, 2021, a total of 6,398 cases and 121 related deaths had been confirmed. The total number of COVID-19 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted to October 31, 2021, was 249,534, and the average positivity rate was 2.56%. Three waves of COVID-19 were recorded, occurring during weeks 15–46 in 2020 (2,369 cases), week 47 in 2020 to week 16 in 2021 (1,665 cases), and weeks 17–43 in 2021 (2,364 cases), respectively. Remarkably, there was no increase in the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases despite rising test numbers throughout the three waves. Moreover, three high R0 values were observed before each wave. The number of positive cases significantly correlated with positive numbers of international arrivals (P < 0.01), deaths (P < 0.01), and the positivity rate of tested samples (P < 0.01). Moreover, all of the deaths occurred during the peak of the three waves. Our results indicate that there was a low level of COVID-19 epidemic in Sierra Leone and that COVID-19's introduction led to local transmission. It is vital to fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from the source of origin by strengthening testing and management of people entering the country. Our findings will provide important clues for expanding sample screening and will contribute to the reasonable allocation of medical resources.

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“…COVID-19 was first reported in East Asia, and then rapidly spread to Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Oceania, causing several waves of pandemics in different regions ( 2 , 3 ). Despite no strict definition for a pandemic wave, a pandemic wave is considered to consist of an increasing number of sick individuals, a clearly defined peak in this number, and finally a decline ( 4 , 5 ). Moreover, a previous predictive model for COVID-19 explored the behavior of a pandemic wave, which can provide vital clues for policymakers to design tailored action plans ( 6 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving trend change during the COVID-19 pandemic

Gao¹,

Zheng

Shi³

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused unimaginable damage to public health and socio-economic structures worldwide; thus, an epidemiological depiction of the global evolving trends of this disease is necessary. As of March 31, 2022, the number of cases increased gradually over the four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating the need for continuous countermeasures. The highest total cases per million and total deaths per million were observed in Europe (240,656.542) and South America (2,912.229), despite these developed countries having higher vaccination rates than other continents, such as Africa. In contrast, the lowest of the above two indices were found in undeveloped African countries, which had the lowest number of vaccinations. These data indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic is positively related to the socio-economic development level; meanwhile, the data suggest that the vaccine currently used in these continents cannot completely prevent the spread of COVID-19. Thus, rethinking the feasibility of a single vaccine to control the disease is needed. Although the number of cases in the fourth wave increased exponentially compared to those of the first wave, ~43.1% of deaths were observed during the first wave. This was not only closely linked to multiple factors, including the inadequate preparation for the initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the gradual reduction in the severity of additional variants, and the protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but this also indicated the change in the main driving dynamic in the fourth wave. Moreover, at least 12 variants were observed globally, showing a clear spatiotemporal profile, which provides the best explanation for the presence of the four waves of the pandemic. Furthermore, there was a clear shift in the trend from multiple variants driving the spread of disease in the early stage of the pandemic to a single Omicron lineage predominating in the fourth wave. These data suggest that the Omicron variant has an advantage in transmissibility over other contemporary co-circulating variants, demonstrating that monitoring new variants is key to reducing further spread. We recommend that public health measures, along with vaccination and testing, are continually implemented to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

Cited by 29 publications

References 17 publications

Analysis of Covid-19 Hospital Admissions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

Analysis of Covid-19 Hospital Admissions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Sierra Leone From March 2020 to October 2021

Evolving trend change during the COVID-19 pandemic

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