Identification of ‘energetic’ swell waves in a tidal strait

Palmer, Tamsin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Wells, N. C.; Saulter, Andrew; Mason, Travis

doi:10.1016/j.csr.2014.08.004

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For example in the city of Southampton properties on lowlying, undefended areas of the River Itchen came with "several centimeters" of flooding (Taylor, 2013). As sea levels rise, future surges that propagate from the North Sea will be a growing threat, although the worst coastal impacts to the central and southwest English Channel coast result from south-westerly storms (since the accompanying extreme waves can overtop coastal defenses) (e.g., Wadey et al, 2013a,b;Palmer et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK

et al. 2015

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A North Sea storm surge during 31 January-1 February 1953 caused Northwest Europe's most severe coastal floods in living memory. This event killed more than 2000 people on the coasts of England, the Netherlands, and Belgium. In the UK, where this study focuses, this event was a pivotal influence for flood risk management. Subsequent progress included a national tide gauge network, a storm surge forecasting and warning service, and major defense upgrades such as the Thames Barrier. Almost 60-years later, on 5-6 December 2013 Storm "Xaver" generated a surge event of similar magnitude. This paper describes a detailed comparison of these two events in the UK in terms of: (1) the meteorological conditions; (2) the observed high sea levels; and (3) the coastal flooding and impacts. The 1953 storm had a more southerly track and generated bigger waves due to the north-northwesterly onshore winds off East Anglia. The 2013 storm had a more west-to-east path from the north Atlantic to Scandinavia. Consequently, the 1953 high waters were more extreme in the southern North Sea. However, the 2013 event coincided with larger astronomical tides, resulting in a larger spatial "footprint". The extreme sea levels impacted communities on the west, east, and south coasts, with 2800 properties flooded during the 2013 event, compared to 24,000 properties (mainly between the Humber and Thames) in 1953. The 1953 floods remain a benchmark in the UK as an event which included failed defenses, damaged property and infrastructure and loss of life. Measures taken after 1953 greatly reduced the consequences of the 5-6 December 2013 storm. Continued monitoring of extreme sea levels and their consequences is important to inform a realistic perspective on future planning and resilience.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK

et al. 2015

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“…Castelle et al () show that winter wave height around Europe has increased significantly since 1984, as well as variability in wave conditions. Large/long‐period waves are the most damaging for overtopping (Palmer et al, ). Large short steep waves are most damaging for navigation, offshore fishing, and marine transport.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Bricheno

Wolf

2018

JGR Oceans

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Changes in future North Atlantic storminess will impact upon wave conditions along the European coasts, with implications for coastal erosion, overtopping, and flood risk. In this study we make a detailed analysis of historic and future wave conditions around the European Atlantic coast, making projections out to the year 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 future emissions scenarios. A decrease in mean significant wave height of the order 0.2 m is projected across most of the European coast. Increases in the annual maximum and 99th percentile wave height as large as 0.5–1 m are observed in some areas but with a more complex spatial pattern. An increase in waves to the north of Scotland is also observed, mainly caused by a reduction in sea ice. We generate a set of coastal wave projections at around 10‐km resolution around continental Europe, Ireland, and the British Isles. Widening of the probability density function (PDF) is observed, suggesting an increased intensity of rare high wave events in the future. The emergent signal of a reduced mean wave height is statistically robust, while the future changes in extreme waves have a wider confidence interval. An assessment of different extreme waves metrics reveals different climate change response at very high percentiles; thus, care should be taken when assessing future changes in rare wave events.

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“…The Southwest, South and Welsh coasts were again battered by gales that sometimes reached hurricane force, and huge wind waves that were superimposed on unusually energetic, long‐period swell waves (Palmer et al . ). Despite this, with a few notable exceptions (Figure ) coastal defences again held up well, although, understandably, they suffered extensive damage that according to the Environment Agency are likely to cost around £140 million to repair (Figure ).…”

Section: Physical Geography Of the Winter Floodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Geographies of UK flooding in 2013/4

Thorne

2014

Geographical Journal

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, an extreme storm surge, a series of intense storms, and the cumulative effects of heavy and persistent rainfall caused widespread flooding throughout the UK, prompting renewed public and scientific debates on who, or what, might be to blame. The public divided fairly evenly into two diametrically opposed groups, the first blaming the government (who initially responded by trying to shift blame to their expert advisors), attributing the mounting flood losses and prolonged misery to lack of investment in flood defences and river dredging. The second group blamed farmers for over-intensive agriculture in upstream catchments, inappropriate development in floodplains, and poor judgement on the part of the victims in choosing to live, work or farm in areas vulnerable to inundation. The floods resulted from a protracted sequence of deep, Atlantic depressions that followed a more southerly track than usual due to the position and configuration of the planetary jet stream. This prompted a second, no less polarised, scientific debate concerning whether the meteorological characteristics of the floods provided evidence that climate change has started to influence not only the probability of UK flooding, but also its nature, spatial distribution and duration. Both debates are intrinsically geographical, and this commentary sets out how understanding the geographies of flooding can help frame and inform them. This is addressed through consideration of these geographies, characterised as physical, rural, urban, social, economic and political. While an individual event (or even a sequence clustered of floods) cannot alone prove anything, the winter floods reinforce the conclusions of the Government's Flood Foresight study, which was commissioned in response to the 2000 (Millennium) Floods and updated following nationwide floods in summer 2007.

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Identification of ‘energetic’ swell waves in a tidal strait

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK

A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Geographies of UK flooding in 2013/4

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