Identification of high-risk and low-risk clusters and estimation of the relative risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in provinces of Iran during 2006–2014 period

Abstract

Background: The present study was conducted to determine the epidemiological status, identify high-risk and low-risk clusters, and estimate the relative risk (RR) of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in provinces of Iran. Materials and Methods: This is an ecological study carried out using an Exploratory Multiple-Group design on 3769 children under 15 years of age with ALL from 2006 to 2014. Data analysis was performed using Mann–Whitney U, Global Moran's I and Kuldorff's purely spatial scan statistic tests at a significance level of 0.05. Results: The average annual incidence rate of ALL during 2006–2014 period was 2.25/100,000 children under 15 years of age. The most likely high-risk cluster with log-likelihood ratio (LLR) =327.47 is located in the southwestern part of Iran with a radius of 294.93 km and a centrality of 30.77 N and 50.83 E, which contained 1276 patients with a RR of 2.56. It includes Fars, Bushehr, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Khuzestan and Chahar Mahall and Bakhtiari provinces. On the other hand, the most likely low-risk cluster with 517 patients, and a RR 0.49 and LLR = 227.03 was identified in the northwestern part of Iran with a radius of 270.38 km and a centrality of 37.25 N and 49.49 E. It includes Zanjan, Qazvin, Gilan and East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Alborz and Tehran provinces. Conclusion: High-risk clusters were observed in Southwestern, central, and eastern Iran, while low-risk clusters were identified in Northern and Western Iran.