Identifikasi Perubahan Pola Curah Hujan Melalui Periodogram Standar

Darmawan, Gumgum; Handoko, Budhi; Zulhanif, Zulhanif

doi:10.20884/1.jmp.2017.9.1.2859

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The best model is selected based on the smallest MAPE value. Darmawan (2016) states that the SSA method decomposes the original time series data into several small parts grouped into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The following explains decomposition and reconstruction as stages of this method.…”

Section: Singular Spectrum Analysis (Ssa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decomposition Decomposition has two stages: Embedding and SVD. Window Length (L) is an essential parameter in the decomposition stage (Darmawan, 2016).…”

Section: Singular Spectrum Analysis (Ssa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…b) Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Darmawan (2016) suggests that SVD is the second step in decomposition. The SVD application is similar to the principal component analysis method by reducing data components and dimensions.…”

Section: A) Embeddingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…a) Grouping According to Darmawan (2016), the eigenvector is the basis for grouping. The trajectory matrix with 𝐿 × 𝐾 size from decomposition results will be grouped into trend, seasonal, and noise.…”

Section: Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Forecasting Consumer Price Index Expenditure Inflation for Food Ingredients Using Singular Spectrum Analysis

Aswi,

Fahmuddin S

et al. 2023

j. Matematika Sains dan Teknologi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Inflation is an economic problem that significantly impacts the macro economy and people's real income if it occurs continuously. South Sulawesi Province often experienced significant inflation fluctuations during 2005-2019. In 2015, inflation in South Sulawesi reached 3.32%, ranking the highest in Eastern Indonesia. Ten food ingredients played an essential role in influencing inflation that year. However, until now, research on forecasting Consumer Price Index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method has never been carried out. The novelty in this research lies in using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method, which provides a new contribution to forecasting inflation trends in South Sulawesi and deepens understanding of regional inflation problems. This research aims to forecast consumer price index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. This research used CPI expenditure inflation data for food ingredients from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency of South Sulawesi for the monthly period from January 2014 - June 2022. The forecasting results show that the lowest inflation rate is predicted to occur in December 2022 at -0,12%, while the highest level is expected to be reached in May 2023 at 0.43%. Furthermore, the mean absolute percentage error value of 3.54% indicates that the forecasting model has a very good level of accuracy. The results of this forecasting have the potential to be used by economic policymakers in South Sulawesi in designing more effective policies to overcome the problem of inflation, especially in the food ingredients and its impact on society. The practical implications of this research can help improve regional economic stability and community welfare.

show abstract

Section: Singular Spectrum Analysis (Ssa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decomposition Decomposition has two stages: Embedding and SVD. Window Length (L) is an essential parameter in the decomposition stage (Darmawan, 2016).…”

Section: Singular Spectrum Analysis (Ssa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A) Embeddingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations